Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann comments on the latest GDP and inflation results in Australia.
Key Takeaways
“The Australian economy grew 0.5% q/q in 4Q22, below expectations of 0.8% q/q, and below the revised 0.7% q/q print in 3Q22. From a year earlier, the economy expanded by 2.7% y/y, within expectations, but much lower from 3Q22’s reading of 5.9% y/y. The latest GDP prints is in line with our view of growth turning softer as high inflation and interest rates weigh on households alongside a slowdown in global growth. We see Australia’s GDP growth slowing this year to 1.7% from 3.7% in 2022.”
“Meanwhile, monthly CPI rose 7.4% y/y in Jan, down from 8.4% y/y in Dec. The latest reading, however, is the second highest annual increase since the start of the monthly CPI indicator series in Sep 2018, signifying ongoing high inflation. That said, inflation seems to have peaked in 4Q22, in line with our view. Our full-year 2023 inflation forecast of 4.8% remains unchanged.”
“All in all, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised the cash rate by 325bps since May 2022, and in Feb, stated that its priority is to return inflation to target, and that further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead. We are keeping our view of two more 25bps hikes in Mar and Apr, which will take the OCR to 3.85%.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD hovers around 1.0700 ahead of German IFO survey
EUR/USD is consolidating recovery gains at around 1.0700 in the European morning on Wednesday. The pair stays afloat amid strong Eurozone business activity data against cooling US manufacturing and services sectors. Germany's IFO survey is next in focus.
USD/JPY refreshes 34-year high, attacks 155.00 as intervention risks loom
USD/JPY is renewing a multi-decade high, closing in on 155.00. Traders turn cautious on heightened risks of Japan's FX intervention. Broad US Dollar rebound aids the upside in the major. US Durable Goods data are next on tap.
Gold: Defending $2,318 support is critical for XAU/USD
Gold price is nursing losses while holding above $2,300 early Wednesday, stalling its two-day decline, as traders look forward to the mid-tier US economic data for fresh cues on the US Federal Reserve interest rates outlook.
Worldcoin looks set for comeback despite Nvidia’s 22% crash Premium
Worldcoin (WLD) price is in a better position than last week's and shows signs of a potential comeback. This development occurs amid the sharp decline in the valuation of the popular GPU manufacturer Nvidia.
Three fundamentals for the week: US GDP, BoJ and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge stand out Premium
While it is hard to predict when geopolitical news erupts, the level of tension is lower – allowing for key data to have its say. This week's US figures are set to shape the Federal Reserve's decision next week – and the Bank of Japan may struggle to halt the Yen's deterioration.