Australia: Disappointing Q4 profits, inventories and wages data – ANZ

Felicity Emmett, senior economist at ANZ, notes that the Australia’s Q4 business indicators data were weaker than anticipated, with profits, inventories and wages all below their forecasts. 

Key Quotes

“Together, these numbers provide a downside risk to our forecast for a 0.2% q/q rise in Q4 GDP, due on Wednesday, and raise the prospect that GDP could print negative in the quarter.”

“Company profits posted a modest headline rise (+0.8% q/q) in Q4, following a downwardly revised rise of 1.2% in Q3 (initially reported as +1.9%). After adjusting for inventory valuations the result was a little better, with non-financial profits on a GDP basis rising 1.8% q/q.”

“Growth in the wages bill was lower than we expected at 0.8% q/q, but the Q3 result was revised up. With the rise driven largely by gains in employment, the GDP measure of average wages is once again set to be weak.”

“Inventories were surprisingly weak (-0.2% q/q), which suggests that private non-farm stocks will make no contribution to GDP growth in Q4, weaker than our expectations.”

“Today’s numbers suggest downside risk to our forecast for a rise of 0.2% q/q in Q4 GDP. We will finalise our estimate after the release tomorrow of net exports and government finance data.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD gains traction and climbs above 1.1600 after US data

After dropping below 1.1600 earlier in the day, EUR/USD managed to stage a recovery in the early American session toward 1.1620 with the latest data releases from the US making it difficult for the greenback to find demand. US trade deficit expanded in September and durable goods orders contracted. 


GBP/USD stays in the negative territory around mid-1.3700s

GBP/USD recovered modestly from the weekly low it set at 1.3710 earlier in the day but continues to trade in the negative territory around 1.3750. The dollar is staying on the back foot after the latest data releases but the cautious mood is limiting the pair's upside.


XAU/USD needs to crack $1781 for further downside

Gold price extends losses amid resurgent US dollar demand. Market sentiment sours ahead of the critical US macro data. Falling US Treasury yields could help put a floor under gold price.

Gold News

Shiba Inu price to provide buy opportunity before SHIB doubles again

Shiba Inu price is due for a retracement after rallying 113% in less than three days. The MRI displays a major sell signal, hinting at a correction that could extend 17%.

Read more

Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Inflation prospects headline policy review Premium

The Bank of Canada is expected to continue tapering its asset purchases and maintain its current rate posture when it concludes it meeting on Wednesday at 10:00 am EDT. Overnight rate projected to be unchanged at 0.25%.

Read more