Australia: Critical employment report ahead – ANZ


ANZ analysts suggest that in their view, the December employment report of Australian economy could be the key to whether the RBA cuts in February.

Key Quotes

“A gain of 10k or less for the month would confirm a sharp slowing in employment growth since Q2 and Q3 last year. While employment is a lagging indicator, a sharp slowdown will cast doubt on the sustainability of the economy’s modest revival.”

“Following the strong retail sales report for November, which was published on 10 January, the market reduced its view of the probability of an RBA rate cut in February to around 40%. It has since crept back up to around 50%, in part due to speculation that November sales were exaggerated by the growth of Black Friday retail activity. ANZ card data suggest that this may indeed be the case. November strength does not appear to have continued, and in fact Christmas retail sales look to have been very weak.”

“The Q4 2019 CPI report due at the end of January will, as always, provide key information for the RBA ahead of its February meeting; but only a major surprise would upset the RBA’s outlook. We expect headline inflation for the quarter to jump to 0.7% q/q and 1.9% y/y. Trimmed mean inflation is expected to be more restrained at 0.4%and 1.6% in quarterly and annual terms, respectively.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD hits fresh decade low near 0.6650 on mixed Aus jobs, PBOC rate cut

AUD/USD extends the decline and hits fresh decade lows near the midpoint of the 0.66 handle despite the PBOC rate cut, as mixed Australian jobs data continue to dent the sentiment around the Aussie. 

AUD/USD News

USD/JPY bulls catch a breath near multi-month top, stays above 111.00

USD/JPY seesaws around 111.30 at the start of Asian session. The risk barometer surged to the highest in nine months the previous day as Chinese authorities manage to placate traders. The pair consolidates gains following FOMC minutes.

USD/JPY News

Gold: Pulls back amid overbought RSI, multiple upside barriers ahead

Gold prices decline to $1,606 during the early Thursday. The yellow metal surged to the highest since March 2013 the previous day but failed to hold onto gains due to the overbought RSI conditions.

Gold News

WTI upside remains capped by $53.00 ahead of API

WTI oil stays upbeat, following the run-up to the monthly high before a few minutes, as taking rounds to $53.70 amid the initial Asian session on Thursday. The black gold recently benefited from the weekly inventory data from the API.

Oil News

FXStreet launches Real-Time Trading Signals

FXStreet Signals offers access to explanatory live webinars, real-time notifications when signals are triggered and exclusive membership to the company’s Telegram group, where users get direct guidance by our analysts and get room to discuss and interact.

More info

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures