AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6210 stalls below 0.6380

The aussie bounces up from 0.6210 and erases the previous two days' losses.
Fed speculation and BoJ intervention hit the USD.
AUD/USD is expected to remain capped below 0.6390.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Australian dollar has featured a strong recovery on Friday’s US trading session. The pair bounced up from session lows at 0.6210, rallying all the way to levels right below 0.6380 and retracing the last two day’s decline.

The USD dives on Fed speculation and BoJ intervention

A news report by the Wall Street Journal suggested earlier on Friday that Federal Reserve officials are open to discussing how to signal a smaller rate hike in December which has hurt demand on the USD across the board.

The report has offset the impact of the hawkish rhetoric of Fed members. Just on Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker assured that the bank will "keep raising rates for a while."

Furthermore, an alleged intervention by the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Finance Ministry has pushed the yen higher across the board. The USD has tumbled more than 2.5% in a matter of minutes, which has hit all US dollar crosses.

AUD/USD unlikely to appreciate past 0.6390 in the near term – UOB

From a longer-term perspective, FX analysts at UOB remain skeptical about the possibility of a sustained uptrend: “Our latest narrative from Tuesday (18 Oct, spot at 0.6295) still stands. As highlighted, AUD is likely to consolidate and trade between 0.6190 and 0.6390 for the time being.”

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6354
Today Daily Change	0.0073
Today Daily Change %	1.16
Today daily open	0.6281

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6381
Daily SMA50	0.6654
Daily SMA100	0.6798
Daily SMA200	0.7014

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6356
Previous Daily Low	0.6228
Previous Weekly High	0.638
Previous Weekly Low	0.617
Previous Monthly High	0.6916
Previous Monthly Low	0.6363
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6307
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6277
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6221
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6161
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6093
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6349
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6416
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6476

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

GBP/USD extends the drop to 1.3360

GBP/USD builds on Monday’s decline and briefly clinches five-day lows near 1.3360 on Tuesday. Cable’s extra pullback follows the better tone in the Greenback as uncertainty in the Middle East prompts investors to adopt a cautious stance. Meanwhile, an apathetic UK labour market report also collaborates with the selling pressure on the British Pound.

EUR/USD holds gains above 1.1400 on hawkish ECB expectations despite US-Iran tensions

The EUR/USD pair trades with mild gains around 1.1405 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. A hawkish tone from the European Central Bank provides some support to the Euro against the US Dollar. Traders await the upcoming ECB interest rate decision on Thursday.

Gold hits two-week highs above $4,100 despite widening Mideast conflict

Gold hits two-week highs above $4,100 in the Asian session on Wednesday. The bright metal seems to ride the optimistic wave that diplomatic efforts are underway. However, concerns about energy-driven inflation risks continue to fuel Fed rate-hike bets. They could act as a tailwind for the US Dollar amid widening US-Iran tensions, which, in turn, could cap the bullion.

The market runs back into AI despite higher Oil and yields

World stocks surged as traders made a spirited return to the market’s commanding centre of gravity, piling back into semiconductors, AI leaders and momentum, with the enthusiasm of a crowd rushing through the one door it still trusts. The Nasdaq led Wall Street higher, semiconductor shares jumped more than 5%, and momentum staged its strongest rebound in years.

The Iranian war has again risen

The Iranian war has again risen to the top of the economics factor list. There is no end in sight. Intelligence experts say the current level of offense/retaliation will not change minds in Tehran, while in Washington, Trump fears all-out war, which would mean boots on the ground.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.