|

AUD/USD to tank towards the August low of 0.7106 – Commerzbank

AUD/USD is trading below the 0.7200 level. Attention reverts to the August low at 0.7106 while the aussie should hold above key support at 0.7062/0.6991 to avoid further falls, according to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank. 

Offered below the four-month downtrend at 0.7390

“AUD/USD’s outlook stays negative. The pair recently failed at the four-month downtrend at 0.7390 and we will retain a negative bias while capped here.”

“Initial resistance is the 0.7317 55-day ma.”

“We look for losses to 0.7106, the August low. Key support remains at 0.7062/0.6991. This represents the September and November 2020 lows.”

“Below 0.6991 would trigger losses to the 50% retracement of the 2020-2021 move at 0.6760.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.1550 ahead of ECB rate decision

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1540 during the early Asian trading hours. Rising bets that the European Central Bank will deliver a rate hike at its June policy meeting later on Thursday underpin the Euro against the Greenback.

GBP/USD nudges higher above 1.3350 despite rising Fed hike bets

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3385 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside might be limited amid rising expectations for higher-for-longer US interest rates. Markets might turn cautious later in the day ahead of the US Producer Price Index report.

Gold steadies above YTD low on softer USD; bearish bias remains amid Fed hike bets

Gold fades a modest Asian session bounce to the $4,118 region, though it manages to hold above the lowest level since November 2025. A softer Core US Consumer Price Index eased concerns about a runaway inflation spiral, weighing on the US Dollar and prompting some intraday short-covering around the precious metal.

XRP and XLM: Mild recovery attempts emerge amid mixed market signals

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) show mild signs of recovery on Thursday after extending losses earlier this week. XRP is holding above the $1.10 level as bearish momentum begins to fade, while XLM has bounced modestly from a key support zone.

Oil is trading shadows on a radar screen

The oil market is no longer trading a clean barrel count. It is trading shadows on a radar screen, tankers running dark, missiles in the air, diplomacy wearing a flak jacket, and every macro desk trying to decide whether the Strait of Hormuz is merely impaired or about to become the fuse that relights the inflation trade.

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.