AUD/USD sees little action after above-forecast Aussie retail sales and trade data

AUD/USD is barely moving despite above-forecast Australia retail sales and trade balance figures.
Retail sales bettered estimates but showed the consumer spending slowed significantly in March.
Caution ahead of the RBA is likely keeping the AUD traders on the sidelines.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

A better-than-expected Aussie consumer spending and trade data released soon before press time is struggling to move the needle on the AUD/USD pair.

The consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, rose at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.3% month-on-month in March, beating the expected 0.2% rise. The actual figure, however, marks a significant slowdown in spending from the upwardly revised 0.9% growth registered in February.

Further, Australia's trade surplus widened to A$ 4,949 million in March, topping the forecast of A$ 4,300 million. The surplus, however, narrowed from the upwardly revised preceding month's print of A$ 5,141 million. More importantly, exports dropped 2%, offering little reason for the AUD bulls to cheer the headline surplus figure.

As a result, the AUD/USD pair has barely moved from the level of 0.6995 seen before the release of the data.

The caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision, due at 04:30 GMT, may be the reason for AUD's lackluster response to macroeconomic data release.

Financial markets now believe there is a 48 % chance the RBA will slice the official interest rates to a record-low 1.25% today, down from 60% seen about ten days ago.

Technical Levels

1. R3 0.705
2. R2 0.7026
3. R1 0.7009
PP 0.6985
1. S1 0.6968
2. S2 0.6944
3. S3 0.6927

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

AUD/USD languishes near two-month low amid renewed Iran tensions

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains close to a nearly two-month low set the previous day. Fresh US strikes on Iran temper hopes for a peace deal and benefit the safe-haven US Dollar. Furthermore, inflationary concerns continue to fuel hawkish Fed expectations, lending additional support to the buck ahead of the US CPI report. Adding to this, reduced bets on an RBA rate hike in June cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY sits near 160.50 intervention zone as bulls shrug off Japan's strong PPI

USD/JPY consolidates just below mid-160.00s, or its highest level since late April, as economic concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict continue to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, a fresh wave of US strikes on Iran benefits the safe-haven US Dollar and acts as a tailwind for the currency pair, countering Japan's hotter-than-expected PPI report. However, intervention fears cap the upside as traders seem hesitant ahead of the US consumer inflation figures later this Wednesday.

Gold flirts with $4,200, lowest since March 23 on hawkish Fed bets

Gold drops to a fresh low since March 23, around the $4,200 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday, as fresh US strikes on Iran fuel inflationary concerns and bolster bets for more hawkish central banks, including the US Fed. Meanwhile, US Dollar bulls are turning cautious ahead of the US CPI report, which could limit bullion losses. However, the recent breakdown below the 200-day SMA suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside.

Bitcoin sell-off pushes over 50% of circulating supply into loss, hinting at market bottom

Bitcoin dropped near $61,000 on Tuesday, with the latest sell-off pushing long-term market indicators toward levels historically associated with bear-market bottoms, according to a report by K33 Research.

When the chips are down, the AI tape starts to shake

The market came into Tuesday trying to sell investors the comforting ”Turnaround Tuesday” idea that Friday’s AI fracture was just another pothole on the road higher. By the close, that story had lost its bid. Monday’s dead cat bounce had done what dead cat bounces always do.

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.