AUD/USD rejects 0.78 handle ahead of RBA on Tuesday

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes are scheduled for next Tuesday at 1:30 GMT.
US Retail Sales are slated on Monday at 12:30 GMT.
The AUD benefitted this week from a wave of positive sentiment as China says it is ready to open its economy and push free trade.

Flavio Tosti Independent Analyst

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7767 up 0.16% on Friday as the second week of April is coming to an end.

The Australian dollar gained as much as 150 pips over the last days as earlier in the week Chinese President Xi Jinping said that he intended to open up its economy and push for free trade. Therefore alleviating the China-US trade war tensions. China is the first Australian’s trading partner and therefore the positive trade news also affected the AUD. Additionally, an increase in Chinese import also helped to the positive sentiment.

Coming up next week on Monday in Australia is the New Motor Vehicle Sales for January released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The news shouldn’t be a market mover. However, Tuesday will see the much more important release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings which are published two weeks after the interest rate decision.

In the US, next Monday will see the release of the Retail Sales dataset at 12:30 GMT and a speech from Raphael W. Bostic who is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, scheduled at 17:15 GMT.

Earlier in the week on Wednesday in Australia, RBA Governor Phillip Lowe said rates are “unlikely to move anytime soon” therefore keeping the same rhetoric. On Thursday, Consumer Inflation Expectations for April decreased from 3.7% to 3.6% without much negative impact on the AUD.

AUD/USD daily chart:

“The rise of the AUD/USD is also seen in Momentum and the RSI. The pair jumped over the 50-day Simple Moving Average and is currently capped by the broader 200-day SMA which awaits around A$0.7815.

One bearish sign to bear in mind: the "death cross." The 50-day SMA recently crossed the 200-day SMA to the downside. However, this nicely named pattern does not always work as advertised. There is another line that carries more weight: AUD/USD is capped by downtrend resistance in the channel.

Looking up, resistance awaits at 0.7815, the 200-day SMA and then 0.7850 that separated ranges during March. Further above, the round number of 0.7900 stopped the pair's rise earlier in the year.

On the downside, 0.7740 was a cushion in mid-April after serving as resistance earlier. Further down, 0.7710 was a line of resistance in late March. The cycle low of 0.7650 awaits below.” Says Yohay Elam, chief analyst at FXStreet.

Author

Flavio Tosti

Independent Analyst

GBP/USD extends the drop to 1.3360

GBP/USD builds on Monday’s decline and briefly clinches five-day lows near 1.3360 on Tuesday. Cable’s extra pullback follows the better tone in the Greenback as uncertainty in the Middle East prompts investors to adopt a cautious stance. Meanwhile, an apathetic UK labour market report also collaborates with the selling pressure on the British Pound.

EUR/USD looks inconclusive near 1.1420

EUR/USD trades in a tight range in the low 1.1400s on Tuesday, struggling to gain momentum amid an equally absence of clear direction in the US Dollar (USD). Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict is capping the pair’s upside, while traders avoid taking significant positions ahead of Thursday’s ECB gathering.

Gold shows signs of life; focus is back to $4,100

Gold gains ground on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s pessimism and advancing toward the $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed policy outlook are expected to limit the precious metal’s bullish momentum in the near term.

XRP extends recovery as on-chain activity grows

Ripple (XRP) ticks up and trades around $1.13 at the time of writing on Tuesday. This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, attributed to reports that mediators between the United States (US) and Iran are seeking a 10-day cessation of strikes to find a way back to the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

The Iranian war has again risen

The Iranian war has again risen to the top of the economics factor list. There is no end in sight. Intelligence experts say the current level of offense/retaliation will not change minds in Tehran, while in Washington, Trump fears all-out war, which would mean boots on the ground.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.