AUD/USD rejected from 200-day SMA as USD strengthens

AUD bulls failed to hold above the 200-SMA after the RBA rate hike momentum.
The cautious market mood following weak Chinese data favours USD.
Rising US bond yields gave a boost to the greenback.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

The AUD/USD trades with losses on Wednesday below 0.6650 area after hitting a daily high at 0.6717. A stronger US Dollar during the American session pushed the pair to the dowside. A surprising 25 basis point (bps) hike by the Bank of Canada (BoC) slightly strengthened the case for a hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the upcoming June 13-14 meeting, sending US yields higher, favoring the US Dollar.

US bond yields rise ahead of Fed decision

The BoC announced on Wednesday a rate hike by 25 bps while markets expected them to maintain them steady at 4.5%. In that sense, adding to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision on Tuesday, the expectations of a 25 bps hike next Wednesday by the Federal Reserve (Fed) slightly increased. However, the CME FedWatch tool suggests that investors are placing higher probabilities on the Fed refraining from hiking rates and instead, keeping the target rate steady at 5.25% but the odds of a 25 bps hike jumped to 30%.

As a reaction, the US bond yields are seeing gains across the curve. The 10-year bond yield rose to 3.79% seeing a 2.35 % surge on the day, while the 2-year yield stands at 4.60% with a 2.02 % advance and the 5-year yielding 3.95% with a 2.37 % increase respectively giving additional traction to the US Dollar.

Earlier on Wednesday, the AUD/USD peaked at 0.6717, the highest level since May 11, despite weak Chinese data. The Australian Dollar was boosted by a hawkish tone from RBA Governor Lowe. However, Australian Q1 GDP data fell below expectations, with a quarterly expansion of 0.2% compared to the market consensus of 0.3%.

Levels to watch

Technically speaking, the AUD/USD holds a neutral to bullish outlook for the short term as the bulls are struggling to maintain their dominance, but technical indicators are still favourable, suggesting that the market may still have some upside potential.

In case the Aussie recovers momentum, the following resistance line up at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6690, followed then by the daily high at 0.6715/20 and the 100-day SMA at 0.6743. On the downside, the next support levels to watch are 0.6640, followed by 0.6605/10 and 0.6575 (weekly low).

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6644
Today Daily Change	-0.0028
Today Daily Change %	-0.42
Today daily open	0.6672

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6613
Daily SMA50	0.6662
Daily SMA100	0.6748
Daily SMA200	0.6692

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6685
Previous Daily Low	0.661
Previous Weekly High	0.6639
Previous Weekly Low	0.6458
Previous Monthly High	0.6818
Previous Monthly Low	0.6458
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6656
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6639
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6626
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.658
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.655
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6702
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6731
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6777

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7150 barrier nine-day EMA

AUD/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving sideways within the rectangle pattern, suggesting a consolidation as neither the bulls nor the bears have enough momentum to take control of the market.

USD/JPY trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Gold defends 200-day SMA, rises toward $4,500

Gold is attempting a tepid recovery toward $4,500 on Thursday, as renewed optimism in the Mideast geopolitical front calms market nerves. This cautious optimism across Asian markets weighs on Oil prices, and diminishes the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, helping Gold stage a decent comeback from the weekly low of $4,424.

Hyperliquid: ETF demand, capital rotation fuel HYPE rally as Bitcoin melts

Hyperliquid price sustains an upward trend near its all-time high of $75.76 on Thursday after posting 80% gains in May, while Bitcoin (BTC) retraces below $65,000, triggering a market-wide panic.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.