AUD/USD Price Analysis: The pair has been stopped in its tracks by a technical resistance level

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

AUD/USD has been in a serious uptrend since 19th March. For the most part, today was much of the same until the US session when some USD strength kicked in. This is a surprise as over the last couple of session at 2.30 pm (London time) like clockwork the greenback has sold off. The ISM services PMI data could have something to do with the dollar strength as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July printed at 58.1vs the analyst forecasts of 55.0.

Looking closer at the chart, the key feature is the rejection of the trendline at the top of the channel. The price has now pulled back 0.57% in the last 4 hours alone. The next major support is holding at 0.7068. There also could be a sticking point at the mean value ara of the current distribution at 0.7132 and on the lower timeframes there has been lots of support and resistance around that zone.

The indicators are looking pretty bullish still as they are lagging behind the current fall. The Relative Strength Index is above the 50 area but bounced off the 70 mark. The MACD histogram is still green and the signal lines remain above the mid-zone. 

Overall, the price is still in a decent uptrend. It is too early to tell if this is the start of a change in trend. If this is to be a change in trend then the channel low could also be broken. The COVID-19 pandemic is still a major issue in Australia and the US but this could be the start of a second wave in Australia as more lockdowns have been enacted in the region. Buying on dips still seems to be the major play in this pair and until a lower high lower low pattern has formed there is no reason to expect a change.

Additional levels