AUD/USD - post-NAB rally stalls after weak China data

  • China retail sales miss estimates by a big margin.
  • China industrial production also prints below estimates.
  • AUD/USD rally backed off from session highs to trade at 0.7625 levels.  

The post-NAB rally in the AUD/USD ran out of steam at a high of 0.7639 after Chinese retail sales missed estimates by a big margin.

China’s Oct retail sales YoY, came in at +10.0 vs. 10.4% expected and 10.3% last, with industrial output YoY printed at 6.2% vs. 6.3% expected and 6.6% last. Meanwhile, urban investment YoY stood at +7.3% vs. 7.4% expected and 7.5% last. 

So far, the data has not had any impact on the yield differential. The 10-year AU-US yield spread remains unchanged at 25.4 basis points. Thus, the AUD may regain bid tone and move back to session highs.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik writes, "following a two-week consolidative phase, the pair resumed its dominant bearish trend, and technical readings in the 4 hours chart support a downward extension as the price accelerated below its 20 SMA, which slowly gains downward strength, while the RSI indicator maintains a bearish slope around 35.  Below the mentioned daily low, the next support comes at 0.7570, where the pair bottomed a couple of times early July, followed by 0.7534, June 22nd daily low. The 0.7660 region is the immediate resistance, followed by the 0.7700 price zone, where selling interest has been aligned these last two weeks."

Support levels: 0.7615 0.7570 0.7535

Resistance levels: 0.7660 0.7695 0.7730

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