|

AUD/USD off lows, still in red near mid-0.7700s

   •  Aussie MI consumer inflation gauge offsets upbeat housing/Chinese data.
   •  A modest USD rebound adds to the downward pressure.
   •  Sliding US bond yields help limit downfall ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision.

The AUD/USD pair maintained its offered tone through the early European session and is currently placed within striking distance of over 2-month lows set last Thursday.

Despite the prevalent negative sentiment surrounding the US Dollar, the pair failed to attract any buying interest and was being weighed down by a drop in Melbourne Institute's monthly consumer inflation gauge. 

Softer inflation data largely negated upbeat Aussie building approvals data and mostly in-line Chinese Caixin Services PMI. This coupled with a modest USD rebound during the early European session further collaborated towards keeping a lid on any attempted recovery move. 

However, the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields, primarily led by global risk-off mood, helped limit deeper losses for higher-yielding currencies - like the Aussie. Moreover, traders also seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of tomorrow’s RBA monetary policy decision and helped ease the bearish pressure, at least for the time being.

Currently trading around mid-0.7700s, traders now look forward to the release of US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for some fresh impetus later during the early NA session.

Technical levels to watch

A follow-through selling pressure could again expose 0.7715-10 support area, below which the pair is likely to break below the 0.7700 handle and head towards testing 0.7665-60 strong horizontal support. 

On the upside, any recovery attempts might continue to confront some fresh supply at the very important 200-day SMA, currently near the 0.7780 region, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering bounce towards 0.7820 hurdle.
 

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).