AUD/USD is at critical 0.76 level ahead of trade balance

Ross J Burland FXStreet

AUD/USD is currently testing the 0.7620 resistance as bulls attempt to hang in there after a large amount of supply over the past few sessions.

AUD/USD dropped from the midway point of the handle yesterday and went on to score a low of 0.7592 overnight before scrambling back to 0.7630 where bulls ran out of steam as the US dollar picked up on good data ahead of this week's showdown in the nonfarm payrolls that will come out on Friday in the US session. This data is widely expected to be relatively solid and could be a catalyst for a rally in the greenback as markets increase the best for a 2016 rate hike from the Fed. For today, we have Australia's trade balance for August and the median estimate is$2.3bn while both exports and imports are expected to fall slightly.

Analysts at Westpac offered a market outlook for the Aussie:

"AUD/USD 1 day: The trade balance poses minor event risk for the AUD today. Otherwise it looks like it wants to retest 0.7600, a resurgent US dollar the main factor.

AUD/USD 1-3 month: While further gains to around 0.77 are possible during the month ahead, driven in part by the faltering US dollar and yield-chasing flows, the AUD is losing energy (perhaps a reflection of its declining yield advantage). By year end, there's a case for a correction towards 0.74 if the Fed tightens in December as we expect. (13 Sep)."

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD is testing the 0.7600 level and a break of here opens up the downside to 0.7560 while the 200 day ma and the 2016 support line at 0.7460/23. "This remains a critical break down point to the 0.7146 May low," explained analysts at Commerzbank. Meanwhile, spot is presently trading at 0.7619, and next resistance can be seen at 0.7620 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.7622 (Daily Open), 0.7625 (Daily High), 0.7640 (Daily Classic PP) and 0.7643 (Hourly 100 SMA). Support below can be found at 0.7619 (Weekly Low), 0.7616 (Daily 20 SMA), 0.7609 (Daily Low), 0.7596 (Weekly Classic S1) and 0.7593 (Yesterday's Low).

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD loses momentum, flirts with 1.3200

GBP/USD is struggling to maintain its positive bias on Thursday, retreating toward the 1.3200 region in response to the pick in the buying interest around the Greenback. That said, Cable remains under scrutiny as cautious market sentiment keeps investors focused on the US-Iran conflict and political effervescence in the UK.

EUR/USD trims gains, challenges 1.1400

EUR/USD now gives away part of its earlier advance, receding toward the 1.1400 contention zone on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pair’s recovery comes amid extra losses in the US Dollar, at the time when while investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and sentiment surrounding global technology stocks.

Gold remains bid and close to $4,100

Gold accelerates its recovery and approaches the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, adding to Thursday’s advance. However, expectations for a hawkish Fed remain steady and keep the yellow metal’s potential upside contained.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin at $60,000, Ethereum at $1,500, and XRP at $1 face a make-or-break test

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) are trading in the red on Friday after three consecutive days of losses, testing their respective make-or-break support levels.

Week ahead – NFP report to challenge Dollar strength and the hawkish Fed

Dollar strength dominates markets, as the hawkish Fed overshadows geopolitics and lower oil prices. NFP week could drive September Fed hike expectations and boost market volatility. The euro lacks fresh bullish catalysts, all eyes on the preliminary inflation report and the ECB Forum.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.