AUD/USD: Has a chance to break below 0.6440 – UOB Group

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Downward momentum is building; the Australian Dollar (AUD) could break below 0.6440 but might not be able to maintain a foothold below this level. In the longer run, AUD must break and hold below 0.6440 before a move to 0.6400 can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Below 0.6440 a move to 0.6400 can be expected

24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that AUD ‘could advance above 0.6560 but is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 0.6600.’ Our view was incorrect, as AUD dropped from 0.6550 to 0.6487, closing largely unchanged at 0.6504 (+0.07%). In early Asian trade, AUD dropped sharply. The sharp decline has led to a buildup in momentum. AUD could continue to decline, possibly breaking below 0.6440. That said, it might not be able to maintain a foothold below this level. To sustain the momentum buildup, AUD must remain below 0.6510 (minor resistance is at 0.6490).”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Wednesday (20 Nov, spot at 0.6530), we indicated that AUD could rebound to 0.6560, possibly 0.6600. After AUD struggled to extend its advance, we indicated last Friday (22 Nov, spot at 0.6510) that it ‘has not been able to make any headway on the upside.’ We added, ‘if AUD breaks below 0.6470 (‘strong support’ level), it would indicate that it is not rebounding further.’ Early today, AUD fell sharply, and broke below 0.6470. Upward momentum has faded. Although downward momentum is beginning to build, it is not enough to suggest a sustained decline. AUD must break and hold below 0.6440 before a move to 0.6400 can be expected. The likelihood of AUD breaking clearly below 0.6440 will increase in the next few days, provided that 0.6525 is not breached.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD regains mild traction, falters near 0.7150

AUD/USD gathers some steam and manages to flirt with the 0.7150 level on Thursday. However, the pair has retraced some of Wednesday’s significant pullback due to renewed selling pressure on the Greenback and a slight improvement in risk sentiment following hopes of a deal in the Middle East. Wrapping up the Australian docket, the RBA’s Hauser will speak early on Friday.

USD/JPY trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Gold puts its 200-day SMA to the test near $4,420

Gold keeps the bullish stance in place in the latter part of Thursday’s session, although a convincing break above the key $4,500 mark per troy ounce still remains elusive. The precious metal’s advance comes amid the resurgence of some selling interest around the Greenback, improving risk sentiment, and declining US Treasury yields across the board.

XRP plummets as ETF outflows, geopolitical tensions reinforce bearish outlook

Ripple (XRP) edges lower, trading around $1.15 at the time of writing on Thursday, its lowest price since February 6. The cross-border money remittance token is extending the sell-off for the fifth consecutive day, reflecting persistent headwinds from ongoing geopolitical tensions and investor uncertainty.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.