AUD/USD flirts with daily low around 0.6400 mark, seems vulnerable to slide further

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday gains to the 0.6425-30 area on Friday.
China’s economic woes continue to act as a headwind for the Aussie despite stimulus talks.
The Fed’s hawkish outlook underpins the USD and contributes to keeping a lid on the major.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair surrenders its modest intraday gains to the 0.6425-0.6430 region and hovers near the lower end of its daily range during the early European session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6400 round-figure mark and remain well within the striking distance of the lowest level since November 2022 touched the previous day.

Despite talks of additional Chinese stimulus measures, concerns about the worsening economic conditions in the world's second-largest economy continue to act as a headwind for antipodean currencies, including the Australian Dollar (AUD). The fears were fueled by the fact that China Evergrande Group – one of the country's biggest real estate developers – has filed for protection from creditors in a US bankruptcy court. This adds to worries about a deepening crisis in China's property sector and keeps a lid on the AUD/USD pair's modest intraday uptick.

Apart from this, the disappointing domestic jobs data on Thursday pretty much confirms another on-hold rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in September and continues to undermine the Aussie. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, reverses a modest intraday dip and stands tall near its highest level in more than two months in the wake of firming expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. This further contributes to keeping a lid on any meaningful upside for the AUD/USD pair.

That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is already flashing oversold conditions and holding back traders from positioning for any further losses in the absence of any relevant economic data from the US. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favour of bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside.

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6405
Today Daily Change	0.0001
Today Daily Change %	0.02
Today daily open	0.6404

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.659
Daily SMA50	0.6682
Daily SMA100	0.6672
Daily SMA200	0.6736

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.645
Previous Daily Low	0.6364
Previous Weekly High	0.6617
Previous Weekly Low	0.6486
Previous Monthly High	0.6895
Previous Monthly Low	0.6599
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6397
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6418
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6362
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.632
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6276
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6448
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6492
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6534

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.