AUD/USD extends losses to one-month lows sub-0.6400 with risk appetite subdued

The Aussie Dollar trades lower on Monday with fears of a regional war in the Middle East gripping markets.
The US Dollar holds gains as the market awaits Iran's response to the US attack.
Positive Australian business activity data has failed to support the AUD.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar is one of the worst performers among major currencies on Monday. The pair extended its reversal from last week's highs at 0.6550 to one-month lows right below 0.6400, with investors holding their breath after the US attack to Iran.

The Aussie extended losses for the third consecutive day on Monday, with investors wary of risk, awaiting a potential response from Tehran to the massive bombings of key energy sites, which, according to US President Trump, have devastated Iran’s nuclear program.

Tehran vowed a response, and a spokesperson from Iran’s army promised severe consequences to the US. So far, however, US interest in the region has not been attacked, and Iran has limited its retaliation with new missile strikes at Israel.

Australian business activity improves

Earlier today, Australian Preliminary S&P Global PMI figures revealed that business activity improved in June, boosted mainly by the services sector. The impact on the AUD, however, was minimal, with geopolitical tensions getting all the focus.

In the US on Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller rattled markets and put the bank’s wait-and-see stance into question as he campaigned for a rate cut in July. Chairman Powell will surely be questioned about this at his Monetary Policy Report to Congress, due on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The highlight today will be the US preliminary S&P Global PMI, which is expected to show some slowdown in both the manufacturing and services sectors, but still at levels consistent with growth.

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Composite PMI

The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD.

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Composite PMI

The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

EUR/USD flirts with weekly lows near 1.1770

EUR/USD now comes under further selling pressure, breaking below the 1.1800 support to challenge the area of weekly throughs near 1.1770 on Thursday. The pair’s decline comes in response to marked gains in the US Dollar amid steady geopolitical tensions. Ealier in the day, the ECB’s Lagarde delivered cautious remarks, although the currency remained apathetic.

GBP/USD threatens the 200-day SMA near 1.3440

GBP/USD rapidly leaves behind Wednesday’s strong advance, coming under heavy pressure and retesting the 1.3440 zone, where the critical 200-day SMA is located. Cable’s deep pullback follows the strong gains in the Greenback, while investors continue to pencil in a potential BoE rate cut in March.

Gold trims gains, slips back to around $5,170

Gold is now facing some downside pressure, hovering around the $5,170 region on Thursday. The yellow metal surrenders part of its earlier gains on the back of the resurgence of the buying interest in the Greenback. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to limit the downside potential for now.