- It has been a busy 20 hours for the Aussie after an uber-dovish RBNZ.
- Aussie bears were quite happy picking up the greenback at a bargain overnight.
- Antipodeans have lost their carry trade attractiveness with lower policy rates than the Fed.
It has been a busy 20 hours for the Aussie after an uber-dovish RBNZ that early Asia-pacific desks walked into which led to heavy AUD/NZD buying and a test of the heavily congested area in AUD/USD between the 55-DMA and double top resistance at 0.7485 - where a high of 0.7453 was made.
Ironically, it is the RBNZ that is likely to have given the market more to manage in the Aussie that what tonight's Statement on Monetary Policy will offer - for the RBA has already been pretty straightforward and unequivocal when it comes to their GDP & CPI outlook, (stubborn wage growth bottoming out/causing low inflation). However, the central bank's guidance on the timing of the next move has not been clear. The RBA has stated their preference to hike rates, although have adopted a more dovish stance than their G10 counterparts and it is unlikely that there will be any moves until Q1 201 - indeed, just as there is little value in holding the Kiwi, the same might be thought of the Aussie as both currencies have lost their carry trade attractiveness with lower policy rates while the Fed is continuing to hike their's - hence, the Aussie bears were quite happy picking up the greenback at a bargain overnight.
Aussie bids tend to dry up at this time of the year
AUD/USD has tumbled back below the base of the daily cloud at 0.7436 and 0.74 the figure and now targets a close below yesterday's low where spot is currently testing at the time of writing, (0.7383), with 0.7348 on the radar at the bottom of the descending channel - (Additionally and seasonally, the Aussie bids tend to dry up at this time of the year). Meanwhile, commodity-FX is keeping an eye on USD/CAD as well after yesterday's over-reaction to the NAFTA talk and escalating Saudi tensions is also one to watch - oil is dragging on the commodity complex and copper is also back on the defensive. (note: all of this bearishness around the antipodeans probably suits China right now, (tariff wars), given how much trade Australia does with the Asian giant).
AUD/USD levels
AUD/USD is en route for a break to the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly sticks having broken below the descending prior resistance from 25th July-31st July, (broken on the 6th aug) on the 4-hr sticks - testing yesterday's low - underpinned by bearish RSI and momentum and trading below the 10 and 21-D SMAs - (A break of 0.7380 will break lows of 6th Aug and yesterday's business). On a breakout, 0.7319 comes as the 11 July lows and further down, the 2001-2018 uptrend line comes in at 0.7191.
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