AUD/JPY starts the new week trying to gain, mounts 84.10 in early Asia

AUD/JPY lifted early in the new trading week following softer-than-expected trade balance figures for Japan, testing the waters just beneath 84.20 as of writing. Asia session will be thin as Chinese banks take the first half of the week off to celebrate Chinese New Year.

Merchandise Trade Balance and Imports both came in as a soft miss for Japan, with Imports showing a steeper decline than expected, coming in at 7.9%, well under the previous 14.9%. Meanwhile, Merchandise Trade Balance came in better than expected but still a downer, with the Japanese economy recording a 943.4 billion Yen deficit over the previous surplus reading of 358.7B Yen.

Bullish prospects for the Aussie remain limited looking forward, as hampered economic growth in Australia has left the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lagging far behind other central banks in their plans to begin increasing rates, with analysts at Westpac largely expecting the RBA to stand pat through this year and 2019 as well. The RBA's February Meeting Minutes will drop on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT, but little action can be expected as the RBA's statements and outlook on the Australian economy have been well-telegraphed.

AUD/JPY Technicals

The Aussie is continuing to dropoff in the face of Yen strength, trading consistently lower in February, and bearish pressure increasing as the 34-EMA crosses down below the 200-day SMA, trading well above current prices, at 86.50. H4 charts paint an equally bearish picture, with the pair dropping consistently for two weeks below a bearish 34-EMA. Current support can be found at 83.90 and 83.40, while bullish action will be constrained by resistance at 84.30 and 84.60.