AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Edges lower below 103.00, but stays supported above 100-day EMA

AUD/JPY drifts lower to near 102.70 in Thursday’s early European session.
The cross keeps the bullish vibe above the key 100-day EMA, with steady RSI momentum.
The upside barrier to watch is 104.43, while the lower band at 100.78 acts as a contention level.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The AUD/JPY cross declines to around 102.70 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid firming expectations for an imminent rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week.

The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5% at a two-day policy meeting ending on Friday. This move would be the first rate hike since January and bring the benchmark rate to a three-decade high. Additionally, recent reports stated that the Japanese central bank would likely maintain a pledge to keep raising interest rates but emphasized that the pace will depend on how the economy reacts to each hike.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY trades at 102.70. The pair holds well above the 100-day EMA at 99.44, keeping the broader uptrend intact. The average slopes higher, reinforcing a buy-the-dip bias. RSI at 54.91 is neutral to mildly positive, reflecting moderated but steady momentum. Price sits just above the middle Bollinger band at 102.61, and the envelopes tilt higher, pointing to trend continuity.

Holding daily closes above the middle band would preserve upside pressure toward the upper Bollinger barrier at 104.43. A break beneath that pivot could expose the lower band at 100.78, with the 100-day EMA at 99.44 providing deeper support. Band expansion remains gradual, so a decisive breakout would require a pickup in volatility.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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