AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Retreats from weekly highs towards 92.50s on risk-off mood

The AUD/JPY paired Wednesday’s gains and retreated from weekly highs amidst a 1.14% loss.
The central bank’s tightening and China’s lockdowns could slow down the global economy.
AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Upward biased, though a wall of solid resistance lies around 94.00.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The AUD/JPY slumps from weekly highs after the US central bank decided to lift rates on Wednesday, triggering a risk-on market mood, which boosted risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD, the NZD, and the CAD. Nevertheless, on Thursday, a violent shift in sentiment witnessed flows towards safe-haven peers, ultimately favoring the Japanese yen. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY is trading at 92.58.

US equities finished Thursday’s session with huge losses, between 3.12% and 4.99%. Rate increases by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday, dented appetite for riskier assets. At the same time, both central banks acknowledged China’s lockdowns, adding that it might disrupt supply chains and spur high inflationary pressures.

On Thursday, the AUD/JPY opened around Wednesday highs around 93.70, and in the Asian session, it probed the 94.00 mark. Nevertheless, as sentiment shifted, the AUD/JPY broke the market structure lows around 93.33 in the hourly chart and accelerated towards Wednesday’s daily lows around 92.26.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/JPY daily chart shows the pair is in an uptrend. The daily moving averages (DMAs) below the spot price aim high. However, it is worth noting that the 50-DMA confluences with the April 27 swing low, each around 90.25 and 90.43 respectively, meaning that a negative shift in sentiment could send the AUD/JPY tumbling towards the 50-DMA. Nevertheless, unless that scenario plays out, the AUD/JPY is upward biased.

That said, the AUD/JPY first resistance would be 93.00. A breach of the latter would expose the May 4 daily high at 93.82, followed by the March 28 daily high at 94.32 and then the YTD high at 95.74.

AUD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	92.58
Today Daily Change	-1.12
Today Daily Change %	-1.20
Today daily open	93.72

Trends
Daily SMA20	93
Daily SMA50	89.91
Daily SMA100	86.17
Daily SMA200	83.98

Levels
Previous Daily High	93.84
Previous Daily Low	92.26
Previous Weekly High	93.53
Previous Weekly Low	90.45
Previous Monthly High	95.75
Previous Monthly Low	90.45
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	93.24
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	92.86
Daily Pivot Point S1	92.71
Daily Pivot Point S2	91.7
Daily Pivot Point S3	91.14
Daily Pivot Point R1	94.28
Daily Pivot Point R2	94.85
Daily Pivot Point R3	95.86

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

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