AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Falls below the 20/50-DMA on risk aversion, ahead of Aussie jobs data

The AUD/JPY crept lower on Wednesday session spurred by a risk-off impulse on worries of China’s economic slowdown. In the meantime, US Retail Sales showed consumers resilience, while “dovish” FOMC minutes put into play a possible Fed “put” in the scene. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY is trading at 93.67.

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The AUD/JPY is in a consolidation phase, unable to crack the top/bottom of the 93.08-94.47 range for the last few days. It is worth noting that the 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs hover around that area, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.98 is almost flat. Therefore, the AUD/JPY is neutral biased.

In the near term, the AUD/JPY 4-hour chart illustrates the cross-currency pair as upward biased, trading within the boundaries of an ascending channel. AUD/JPY buyers reclaimed the 200-EMA and reached a daily high at 94.47 on Wednesday. However, solid resistance at the 20-EMA, sliding towards the confluence of the 100 and 200-EMAs, around 93.65-68. If AUD/JPY sellers clear the latter, then a fall towards the confluence of the S1 daily pivot and the bottom of the ascending channel, around 93.50-60, is on the cards.

If that scenario plays out, the AUD/JPY’s next support will be the August 15 low at 93.07. Once cleared, it will expose the August 4 low at 92.25 and 92.00. However, if AUD/JPY buyers remain in control, a break above the August 17 high at 94.47 to open the door for further gains. Hence, the first resistance would be the top of descending channel at 94.97. Once cleared, the next supply zone will be the July 27 daily high at 95.69, followed by the 96.00 figure.

AUD/JPY Key Technical Levels