AUD/JPY price analysis: Bulls hold the line and defend the 100-day SMA

In Monday's session, the AUD/JPY pair lost ground, with a low of 96.32 following a previous high of 96.80 earlier in the day. On the fundamental side, markets await the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday where investors will look for clues for forward guidance which could set the pace of the cross for the week. The technical outlook for the pair remains neutral to bearish on the daily chart, although recent activity shows the bulls regaining some ground on the hourly chart.

AUD/JPY levels to watch

According to the daily chart, it is showing a neutral to bearish outlook. The negative territory and declining slope of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bearish momentum. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showcases increasing sake of red bars which signals the short-term downward pressure. Nevertheless, despite the shorter-term momentum suggesting bearish sentiment, when looking at the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the pair is evidently below the 20-day SMA but bulls are presenting battle at the 100-day SMA and is still above the 200-day average. This indicates that in the larger picture, bulls maintain a stronghold.

Moving onto the shorter-term outlook given by the hourly chart, it presents a slightly different picture. On this timeframe, despite the bears taking a step back and allowing for some recovery, the bullish force is merely reflected as a retaliation rather than a comeback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) although in negative territory, boasts a positive slope indicative of some bullish pushback. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) echoes this sentiment with flat red bars. However, the buying momentum is not sufficient to negate the dominant selling sentiment, but it does put forth a pause in the bearish outlook of the session.