AUD/JPY: No reaction to uptick in China's trade surplus


  • AUD/JPY is trading largely unchanged on the day despite the rise in China's Trade Surplus. 
  • The AUD is struggling to pick up a bid amid the rise in China's offshore Yuan exchange rate. 

A rise in China's Trade Surplus has failed to put a strong bid under the Aussie Dollar, leaving the AUD/JPY pair largely unchanged on the day at 73.50.

China's Imports tanked 8.5% year-on-year in September and Exports or outbound shipments fell by 3.2% year-on-year, pushing the Trade Surplus higher to $39.65 billion compared with a $34.84 billion surplus in August. Analysts had forecast $33.3 billion.

In Yuan terms, the Trade Surplus rose to CNY 280 billion.

The uptick in the Trade Surplus is boding well for the offshore Yuan (CNH). The USD/CNH pair is now trading at 7.0577, the lowest level since Sept. 16, having dropped from 7.08 in the last hour or so.

So far, however, the AUD has not been able to benefit from China data and the rise in the CNH, possibly because the uptick in the Trade Surplus was due to a sharp drop in imports – a sign of weakening domestic demand conditions.

Also, markets are worried that the latest US-China trade truce (reached on Friday) lacks proper dispute settlement mechanism and could fall apart, leading to further escalation of trade tensions. That could be capping the upside in the AUD/JPY pair.

That said, the futures on the S&P 500 are now reporting a 0.21% gain. Hence, AUD/JPY may explore the upside in the European session.

Technical levels

USD/CNH

Overview
Today last price 7.0605
Today Daily Change -0.0276
Today Daily Change % -0.39
Today daily open 7.0881
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 7.1183
Daily SMA50 7.1098
Daily SMA100 7.0049
Daily SMA200 6.8836
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 7.128
Previous Daily Low 7.0704
Previous Weekly High 7.1705
Previous Weekly Low 7.0704
Previous Monthly High 7.1967
Previous Monthly Low 7.0311
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 7.0924
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 7.106
Daily Pivot Point S1 7.063
Daily Pivot Point S2 7.0378
Daily Pivot Point S3 7.0053
Daily Pivot Point R1 7.1206
Daily Pivot Point R2 7.1531
Daily Pivot Point R3 7.1783

 

   

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