AUD/JPY holds near 110.50 as BoJ uncertainty weighs on Japanese Yen

AUD/JPY holds firm as the Japanese Yen weakens amid uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook.
A senior BoJ official signaled rates will keep rising if the economic outlook remains on track.
S&P Global Australia Services PMI fell to 46.3 in March from 52.8 in February, marking a sharp contraction in activity.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

AUD/JPY holds ground after posting gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 110.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross remains in the positive territory as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy stance.

A senior BoJ official signaled last week that the central bank will continue raising interest rates if its economic outlook remains intact, maintaining a tightening bias despite surveys pointing to mounting pressure on firms from higher fuel costs tied to Middle East tensions. However, traders remain uncertain about whether it will offer clear forward guidance ahead of its April 28 policy meeting.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that G7 finance ministers and central bankers agreed that volatile oil prices are driving significant swings in financial and foreign exchange markets. She added that authorities have not yet estimated the cost of continuing fuel subsidies to stabilize gasoline prices, noting there are no concerns over current oil stock levels, but uncertainty remains about supporting Southeast Asian partners. Policymakers are assessing all scenarios, including both optimistic and pessimistic outlooks for oil stockpiles.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) moves little against its major peers following the release of Australia’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Australia Services PMI registered 46.3 in March, falling sharply from 52.8 in February. The contraction in activity was significant and marked the steepest decline since November 2023. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI declined to 46.6 in March from 52.4 in February, indicating a contraction in private sector business activity for the first time in eighteen months.

Bank of Japan FAQs

What is the Bank of Japan?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy?

The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen?

The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.

Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy?

A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

AUD/USD defies Iran war jitters as RBA hike bets double

The Australian Dollar rallies for the fourth straight day against the US Dollar as market mood remains positive amid high tensions in the Middle East, pointing to a resumption of hostilities, as reported by recent news. Despite this, the AUD/USD trades at 0.7027, up 0.44%.

USD/JPY remains confined in a familiar range below 158.50

USD/JPY sees some dip-buying in the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range near 158.50 as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold advances modestly; targets $4,150

Gold prices manage to reverse three consecutive daily declines, trading just below the $4,150 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The precious metal’s recovery comes amid a slight drop in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields across the board and a widespread cautious tone from the US-Iran front.

XRP and XLM regain momentum as derivatives activity picks up

Ripple and Stellar are regaining momentum on Wednesday, mirroring gains across major digital assets. XRP has climbed above $1.36, while XLM has reached $0.1854, reinforcing support levels recently tested. This gradual price increase comes amid sticky inflation in the United States and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary decision next week.

What the midterm elections mean for Treasury yields, the Dollar and Gold

Democrats are priced to take the House, so November 3 comes down to the Senate and how much Washington can borrow without the other party. Treasury yields will show the answer first, then the Dollar and Gold. On November 3, Americans vote for all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. For bond prices, the result comes down to one thing: how much the government will borrow over the next two years.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.