|

AUD/JPY edges higher to near 103.50 due to hawkish sentiment surrounding RBA

  • AUD/JPY gains ground as RBA expects to increase policy rates if inflation doesn’t return to the 1%-3% range.
  • The Australian Dollar gained support as Trade Surplus widened A$6,548 million (US$4,321.68 million) in May.
  • Japan’s GDP Annualized showed that Japan’s economy contracted by 1.8% in Q1, against the expected decline of 2.0%.

AUD/JPY retraces its recent losses, trading around 103.50 during the European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground due to the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Last week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated that the central bank is prepared to increase interest rates if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not return to the target range of 1%-3%, according to NCA NewsWire.

The Australian Dollar gained support as market sentiment improved following the country’s Trade Balance release on Friday. Australia’s Trade Surplus widened to A$6,548 million (US$4,321.68 million) in May, surpassing the expected A$5,500 million and April's balance of A$5,024 million. This improvement can be attributed to a 7.2% month-on-month plunge in imports in May, reversing April’s 4.2% increase, while exports fell by 2.5% following a previous decline of 0.6%.

Meanwhile, China’s imports rose by 1.8% year-on-year to USD 219.73 billion in May, missing market estimates of a 4.2% increase and significantly down from April's 8.4% rise. Any change in China's economy could impact the Australian market due to the close trade relationship between the two countries.

In Japan, the mixed data released on Monday could limit the downside of the Japanese Yen. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized showed that Japan’s economy contracted less than expected in the first quarter. Japan’s GDP Annualized contracted by 1.8% in the first quarter, compared to a previous decline of 2.0%, slightly exceeding market forecasts of a 1.9% decrease. Meanwhile, GDP (QoQ) shrank by 0.5%, matching the flash data.

AUD/JPY

Overview
Today last price103.44
Today Daily Change0.29
Today Daily Change %0.28
Today daily open103.15
 
Trends
Daily SMA20103.91
Daily SMA50101.93
Daily SMA10099.88
Daily SMA20097.98
 
Levels
Previous Daily High103.97
Previous Daily Low102.98
Previous Weekly High104.73
Previous Weekly Low102.62
Previous Monthly High104.87
Previous Monthly Low99.93
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%103.36
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%103.59
Daily Pivot Point S1102.76
Daily Pivot Point S2102.38
Daily Pivot Point S3101.78
Daily Pivot Point R1103.75
Daily Pivot Point R2104.35
Daily Pivot Point R3104.74

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

More from Akhtar Faruqui
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK PMI data

Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.3300 in the American session on Friday, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales and July PMI data. Nevertheless, the pair's upside remains capped as investors cling to a cautious stance amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US July PMI data failed to trigger relevant price action.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1400 after mixed US PMIs

EUR/USD pressures daily lows below the 1.1400 mark in the American session on Friday. Mixed S&P Global PMIs, as manufacturing output contracted while services activity expanded in July, triggered no relevant market reaction. The focus remains in Middle East developments and inflation-related concerns.

Gold holds above $4,050 but momentum still missing

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce and climbs above the $4,050 level on Friday, hitting a fresh daily high amid a modest US Dollar pullback. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the pullback from an over two-week high, touched on Wednesday, has run its course and positioning for any meaningful upside.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

XRP retreats as ETF interest cools
Ripple (XRP) slides toward the short-term $1.10 support on Friday, as broader crypto market sentiment weighs on crypto assets. The sell-off mainly stems from fears of inflation in the United States (US) amid the ongoing war in the Middle East and rising Oil prices.
US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.