AUD: Global economy more important than gold – Commerzbank

Due to the sharp rise in the price of gold, Australia's gold exports have also increased significantly in recent weeks. In the first eight months of this year, the share of Australian gold exports in total exports rose to over 10%. This is the first time since 1988, when data collection began. And this does not even take into account the rise in the price of gold in recent weeks, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

AUD is likely to remain weak

"It can therefore be assumed that gold's share of total exports is likely to continue to rise. For the coming months, the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources expects gold to replace natural gas as Australia's second-largest export commodity. Our colleagues in commodities research even anticipate a permanently higher gold price than the Australian department, which could provide even stronger support for exports."

"This is likely to provide marginal support for the Australian dollar, but has not yet led to a resurgence in overall Australian exports. In August, exports were still 3% below the previous year's level, and in the first eight months of the year, exports were around 1% below the previous year's level. More important than gold for Australia are exports of industrial metals, iron ore, and energy, which together account for over 60% of exports."

"An improvement in the global economic situation would therefore help the Australian dollar more than a sustained rise in the price of gold. However, we do not currently expect this to happen. The Australian dollar is therefore likely to remain weak."