Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, points out that there was slight improvement in Asia's manufacturing PMI's in November, with all but two (Thailand and Philippines) rising.
“Nonetheless, 6 out of the 9 country PMIs are in contraction below the 50 boom/bust mark and some are sharply lower compared to a year ago. China which moved back into expansion, India and Philippines were the outliers over 50. Thailand in contrast moved from expansion into contraction.”
“Our composite GDP weighted PMI moved back into expansion to its highest since April 2019 after slipping below 50 last month. Stripping China out, Asia's composite PMI recorded a 6th straight month in contraction.”
“The PMI's support evidence that the second derivative of data is improving and that the region is bottoming. Some of the bounce may have been due to trade hopes, which are at risk of reversing given the lack of progress on 'Phase 1'. However, there are signs of improvement in the tech sector, which will help tech exporters.”
“Going forward any recovery will be gradual, with the down draft from weakness in US manufacturing to weigh on the region even amid signs of an improvement in demand from China.”
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