Annaly to report Q3 earnings: What's in store for the stock?

Key takeaways

• Annaly is set to report Q3 earnings after market close on Oct. 22, 2025.

• Consensus sees NII at $447M and EPS of 72 cents per share, both up year over year.

• Tighter MBS spreads and slower prepayments likely aided book value gains.

Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 22, after market close. The company’s results are expected to reflect year-over-year increases in earnings and net interest income (NII) in the quarter to be reported.

In the last reported quarter, the mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) earnings available for distribution per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Improvements in the average yield on interest-earning assets supported results. However, the company registered a year-over-year decline in book value per share (BVPS).

Annaly has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 2.19%.

Earnings surpsrise history

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let us see how things have shaped up before the third-quarter earnings announcement.

The consensus estimate for third-quarter NII is pegged at $447 million, suggesting a rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported NII of $13.4 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been unchanged at 72 cents over the past seven days. The metric indicates a year-over-year rise of 9.1%.

Estimates revision trend

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Factors to shape NLY’s Q3 performance

Despite interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in mid-September, mortgage rates did not come down meaningfully. In the third quarter, mortgage rates remained in a range-bound pattern. As such, refinancing activities and origination volumes witnessed decent growth.

Amid this, a significant portion of NLY’s MBS holdings is anticipated to have witnessed elevated levels of constant prepayment rate. This is expected to have positively impacted net premium amortization in the third quarter, thereby supporting growth in interest income and average asset yield.

Agency MBS spreads tightened sharply in the third quarter, given lower interest rate volatility. As such, Annaly is likely to have seen some improvement in its book value per share in the quarter to be reported.

Given slower prepayment speeds in the third quarter, the company’s mortgage servicing rights portfolio is likely to have been impacted positively to some extent. This is anticipated to have increased NLY's servicing fees in the quarter to be reported.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net servicing income of $126 million indicates a year-over-year rise of 15.6%.

What the Zacks model reveals for annaly

Our proven model does not show that an earnings beat is likely for NLY this time around. This is because the company does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Annaly has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks rank: NLY currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. 

NLY price performance and valuation

Annaly outperformed the industry and its peer, Orchid Island Capital (ORC), in the third quarter of 2025 and underperformed its peer, Arbor Realty Trust ABR).

Price performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Orchid Island Capital is scheduled to announce quarterly numbers on Oct. 23, whereas Arbor Realty Trust is expected to come out with its performance details on Nov. 7. 

Over the past week, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arbor Realty’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been unchanged at 28 cents per share. The consensus estimate for Orchid Island Capital has been unchanged at 15 cents.

---

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report