Aluminium prices to hold steady, copper prices seen higher in 2018 – Reuters poll

The results of the latest Reuters poll of analysts showed that aluminium prices are likely to hold steady this year while copper prices are seen higher amid copper market deficit.

Key Findings:

“The median forecast of 32 analysts for the average 2018 LME cash aluminium price was $2,150 a tonne, down 3 percent from Friday’s close but slightly higher than the $2,097 forecast in the previous poll in January.

Analysts raised their forecast for this year’s aluminium deficit to 550,000 tonnes, up 52 percent from the January poll, and nearly quadrupled their estimate for a 2019 shortfall to 588,500 tonnes.

In copper, analysts marked up price forecasts and their market deficit estimates but said deep shortages are unlikely.

The copper market deficit was forecast at 60,000 tonnes this year, up from January’s estimate of 45,500 tonnes.

The risk of labour problems may have been partly behind the 4 percent rise in analysts’ forecasts of the average LME cash copper price in 2018 to $6,975 a tonne, up 4 percent from the previous poll.

Analysts in the poll lifted their forecast for this year’s average LME cash nickel price to $13,160 a tonne, up 12 percent from the previous poll but still 5 percent below Friday’s close.”