All eyes on Nvidia earnings: Will the tech giant rise in spite of China risks?

The trading mood for equities and cryptos defined by one stock today: Nvidia.

The world’s most valuable chipmaker will announce their earnings after today’s market close, and the outcome could ripple across global markets.

This isn’t just another quarterly update. Consensus expects EPS of $0.64 and revenue of $28.4 billion, but the real story lies in how the company balances soaring AI demand with mounting pressure from U.S.–China trade tensions.

Expectations

• EPS forecast: $0.64 per share
• Revenue forecast: $28.4 billion
• Options market: Pricing a ±6.7% move, equal to more than $250 billion in market value

That swing implies upside toward $194 or downside near $170. With Nvidia’s market cap being larger than the Nikkei and the UK’s stock index; traders should keep their eyes on this earnings report.

The bigger picture

Nvidia is more than a stock. It’s now larger than entire national exchanges like Canada and the UK, making it a barometer for AI sentiment and broader risk appetite. The question is critical: will tonight’s results reinforce the AI boom and drive new highs, or do they mark the moment when markets begin to rotate elsewhere?

Technical analysis: Nvidia daily chart

On the daily chart, Nvidia is consolidating around the Point of Control at $182, the heaviest traded level in the recent decline.

The recent decline’s Volume Profile highlights two zones of resistance to watch:

• Value Area High (VAH): $183 — resistance, capping the upper range.

• Point of Control (POC): $182 — the balance point between buyers and sellers.

Should Nvidia reject from this area, or even a little higher at $185, we could see a decline towards $170, which aligns with the expected move of 6.70%. 

Ultimately, price action is king. Even if earnings are strong, if the markets decide to fade the resistances, a logical support to watch would be the $170 to $174 zone.