Acceleration in NFP to fuel Dollar buying – MUFG

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

All eyes are on the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Economists at MUFG Bank discuss how employment data could impact yields and the Dollar.

An in-line print could allow the Dollar to adjust a little further weaker

If today’s NFP data was to reveal an acceleration in payrolls it would certainly push further back the expectations on the timing of a downturn, reinforce the ‘higher for longer’ mantra and fuel renewed UST bond selling and Dollar buying.

An in-line print may be greeted with some relief that extends the correction in yields a little further lower from here which would allow the Dollar to adjust a little further weaker too.

The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections in September revealed expectations of the labour market being stronger (unemployment rate revised down from 4.1% to 3.8% for Q4 2023 – the current level) which means any disappointment in the data like another jump in the unemployment rate has the potential to influence rate expectations that bit more.

See – NFP Preview: Forecasts from seven major banks, losing momentum

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD remains offered below 1.3600

GBP/USD resumes its decline, reversing Tuesday’s bullish attempt and breaking below 1.3600 the figure on Wednesday. Cable’s marked pullback follows a firm advance in the Greenback as investors continue to assess latest US data as well as the geopolitical landscape.

EUR/USD remains on the back foot around 1.1650

EUR/USD comes under renewed selling interest, slipping back to the mid-1.1600s ahead of the opening bell in Asia. Spot loses momentum on the back of solid gains in the US Dollar in a context of unabated geopolitical tensions and steady caution ahead of key US data releases and Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Looking ahead, the ECB will publish its Accounts on Thursday.

Gold recovers from weekly low; trades above $4,600 on softer USD

Gold attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday, recovering part of the previous day's losses to the weekly low as the US dollar lacks follow-through amid Hormuz optimism and sliding US bond yields. Meanwhile, hot US PCE inflation data keeps Fed rate-hike bets on the table, acting as a tailwind for the buck and capping non-yielding bullion.

Bessent’s bond moves and dollar weaponization strengthen Bitcoin's case

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent actions have strengthened two of the strongest arguments for Bitcoin (BTC), according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. In a late Tuesday note to investors, Hougan highlighted Bessent’s comments on CNBC and the US government’s increasing use of the dollar-based financial system as key developments that could support BTC’s long-term appeal.

60 days to pay: Nvidia is financing its own demand

The Jensen Huang-helmed Nvidia (NVDA) delivered its second-quarter earnings print with its stock roughly 11% beneath the peak it set in May and around 8% beneath where it traded in mid-August, on the day it told the market it would stand behind up to $105 billion of a single customer's rent. Then it beat everything. Revenue of $96.221 billion against a consensus near $92 billion.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.