XRP records $1.93 billion in realized losses, the largest peak since the FTX collapse

XRP accumulated $1.93 billion in realized losses over the past week, according to blockchain analytics platform Santiment. The figure surpasses any other peak recorded since November 2022, when the collapse of exchange FTX triggered a broad market sell-off. The scale of the event places XRP at one of the most intense selling pressure points in its recent history.

What makes the situation particularly striking is the price reaction. Despite the volume of selling, XRP trades around $1.44 and shows no collapse proportional to the pressure applied. The market absorbs the supply without breaking down, creating a clear divergence between the volume of realized losses and the asset's actual price action.

Whales and institutions accumulate while retail investors sell

The November 2022 episode offers a concrete reference point: after that month's loss peak, XRP rebounded approximately 114% over the following eight months. History does not repeat mechanically, but the pattern adds context for anyone assessing the current moment.

While retail investors liquidate positions, data points to opposite behavior in other market segments. The XRP spot ETF recorded net inflows for three consecutive weeks, with approximately $45 million entering the product last week alone. 

At the same time, total XRP reserves held on exchanges dropped to five-year lows, suggesting a portion of the sold supply moves off platforms into cold wallets — likely held by long-term holders or institutions — which eases immediate selling pressure on the market.

The combination of extreme realized losses, a relatively stable price, and sustained institutional accumulation forms a pattern that has historically preceded temporary market bottoms. Even so, XRP's next direction depends on the broader macroeconomic environment, Bitcoin's behavior, and whether the asset manages to clear resistance around $1.50.

Diverging projections and opposing forces define its path

Analysts disagree sharply on XRP's future, and the numbers make that clear. Standard Chartered cut its projection by 65%, lowering its estimate from $8 down to $2.80 by the end of 2026, citing macroeconomic weakness and a market still under sustained pressure. 

At the opposite end, Google's Gemini AI projects the asset near $10, supported by growing institutional flows and the possibility of greater regulatory clarity in the United States. Prediction market Polymarket puts the odds of XRP breaking its all-time high during the year at just 15 to 17%. Short-term technical models point to a more modest target: $1.50 by March 2026.

The wide gap between projections does not reflect analytical whim. Behind each figure sit real, concrete forces pushing in opposite directions.

Bullish drivers collide with concrete selling pressure

On the positive side, Ripple's CEO estimates a 90% probability that the CLARITY Act passes in April 2026. If approved, the legislation would classify XRP as a digital commodity, remove legal uncertainty in the US market, and open the door to broader banking adoption. 

Meanwhile, Evernorth, the largest corporate XRP treasury holder, plans to deploy capital within the XRP Ledger into decentralized finance products, and Ripple continues expanding its custody services for institutional clients. The network also adds technical upgrades including Permissioned Domains and Token Escrow, both designed to attract institutional use.

Yet the price has not responded to any of those developments. The primary reason lies in selling pressure: recent data shows a rise in large XRP transfers toward exchanges like Binance, a signal that historically anticipates selling intent. 

Adding to the headwinds, RLUSD — Ripple's own payment-focused stablecoin — competes directly for the utility role XRP has traditionally held in its core use case. Above all, the broader crypto market has shed nearly $2 trillion since October, and the adverse macroeconomic environment weighs on every asset without exception.