- The Van Eck SolidX Bitcoin ETF request faces another deadline.
- The SEC may approve, reject, or delay the decision in this high profile request.
- The top three cryptos are set to react differently in each scenario.
The US Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) faces a deadline regarding the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) request by Van Eck and SolidX.
Why are ETF's so important? They open the gates for mainstream investors to jump into the trading in cryptocurrencies. By investing in an ETF, the managers of that security will need to buy the underlying asset, thus Bitcoin. Flows into BTC can then flow into other digital coins.
More: Bitcoin ETF explained: 9 questions and answers about the critical crypto catalyst
Here are three scenarios for the upcoming decision and the potential crypto reaction.
1) Approval - low probability, high reward
The chances are low as the SEC has never approved a decision. That makes an approval dramatic. The first break of the Crypto ETF glass ceiling would be tremendous for cryptocurrencies, and all boats would rise. Bitcoin would be the main winner as the ETF is directly tied to it. BTC/USD has somewhat taken the back foot of late but led the initial spring rise. It could take the lead once again.
An approval may send it above the long-term ceiling of the channel, opening the door to shooting much higher.
Ethereum, Ripple, and others would also be swept higher. Some of the funds entering Bitcoin from exchanges supporting fiat currencies will push veteran investors into the next opportunities in riskier cryptocurrencies. The scramble to get an ETF approved for another digital coin such as ETH or Ripple may begin.
2) Delay - Once again?
Markets have become more immune to delays. The SEC has pushed back on decisions so many times, including in the recent case related to Bitwise, that a potential slide in prices may serve as a buying opportunity.
This specific ETF request has already suffered a delay and another one cannot be ruled out. Some speculate that the authorities may postpone it until mid-October. The closer the new date is, the weaker the drop in cryptos.
A push back to October could hurt Bitcoin a bit more, but as mentioned before, it may serve as an opportunity to scoop up more coins. The reaction in BTC/USD will likely be mirrored in ETH/USD and XRP/USD.
3) Rejection - cannot be ruled out
The authorities may stop procrastinating and put their foot down, rejecting this high profile request. That would already trigger a more significant sell-off that could last for a longer period of time.
However, it is important to keep in mind that markets are less dependent on a Bitcoin ETF than they were beforehand. After several hours or days, we may be back to business.
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