|

Three signs altcoin season is dead and traders are betting on top 3 cryptos

  • Altcoins are struggling and Bitcoin hovers close to the $105,000 support amidst rising geopolitical tensions. 
  • Derivatives data shows traders betting on Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP even as large-scale liquidations hit exchanges. 
  • Altcoin prices could not keep up with capital inflows from institutional and retail investors even as sentiment improves. 

The altcoin season is a time period during which 75% of the altcoins ranked in the top 50 cryptos by market capitalization outperform Bitcoin in a 90-day timeframe. Traders await the altcoin season every market cycle to take profits on alternative tokens as capital rotates from Bitcoin to other cryptos. 

The ongoing market cycle has been different from the others as institutions back Bitcoin, Ethereum and top cryptocurrencies across various sectors of the industry, rather than rotating capital into altcoins. Meme coins, AI agent tokens and Ethereum Layer 2 chains have rallied in the last six months on different occasions, in a manner similar to the previous altcoin season. 

The current market scenario with rising geopolitical tensions, mass market liquidations and Bitcoin price decline, could delay or potentially end the cyclical arrival of the altcoin season. 

What went wrong with altcoins?

The altcoin season index, an indicator that measures on a scale of 0 to 100 whether it is altcoin season or not, reads 14. The value corresponds with a Bitcoin season where BTC gains are dominant for traders and Bitcoin outperforms altcoins ranked in the top 50. 

When the indicator crosses 75, it is considered an altcoin season. The indicator shows that since mid-May, it has been Bitcoin season and the value is below 25.

Altcoin season

Altcoin season Index | Source: Blockchaincenter

As of June 23, the index hit its lowest level in two years, marking a bottom and quashing hopes of market participants awaiting gains on their alt holdings. 

Instead of rotating capital into altcoins, institutions are deploying capital in top cryptos like Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP investment funds and directing it to investment vehicles such as ETFs and other products. Digital Asset Fund Flows report shows that Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP investment funds have attracted a large volume of inflows over the last week, month-to-date and year-to-date compared to the rest of the altcoins. 

Digital asset flows

Digital asset fund flows | Source: CoinShares weekly report 

While Ethereum, XRP and other cryptocurrencies on the list still qualify as altcoins, these tokens rank among the top cryptos by market cap and have gained from institutional capital rotation into their investment funds throughout 2025. 

The fallout from the war, Bitcoin price drop and derivatives activity

Bitcoin held steady above the $100,000 milestone for nearly the entire last week, until the US strike on Iran that pushed BTC to the nineties. The largest cryptocurrency recovered from the drop and is holding steady above support at $105,000 on Tuesday. 

Derivatives data from Coinglass shows that liquidations in the crypto market crossed $470 million and traders are betting on Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP, the top three cryptocurrencies. Open Interest (OI), a metric that tracks the value of all open derivatives contracts in an asset, observed an increase in BTC, ETH and XRP in the last 24 hours. 

Derivatives activity

Top 5 cryptos derivatives activity | Source: Coinglass

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, that tracks the sentiment among traders, shows that traders are currently “greedy” and the sentiment has improved from neutral last week. “Greedy” corresponds to a value of 65, meaning there is an appetite for crypto among traders. 

The tracker helps identify the demand for crypto and the sentiment among crypto traders during geopolitical crises and key events. 

Fear and greed index

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative

Bitcoin trades at $105,073 at the time of writing, losing 0.25% on the day. 

Author

Ekta Mourya

Ekta Mourya

FXStreet

Ekta Mourya has extensive experience in fundamental and on-chain analysis, particularly focused on impact of macroeconomics and central bank policies on cryptocurrencies.

More from Ekta Mourya
Share:

Editor's Picks

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI risks another lower leg as the broader crypto market slips

Pi Network is trading in the red on Thursday, retreating toward a near-term support around $0.0740. The Fear and Greed Index declines to 43 on Thursday, while total liquidations exceed $350 million over the last 24 hours, suggesting a deterioration in investors' risk appetite and a sell-side bias. The technical outlook for PI is bearish, with selling pressure building.

Ripple and Stellar outlook: XRP and XLM lose ground as hawkish Fed tone weighs

Ripple and Stellar remain under pressure on Thursday as bearish derivatives positioning and on-chain signals weigh on sentiment. XRP slides toward key support at $1.30, while XLM gives back some of its recent gains. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at its two-day October policy meeting.

Cardano Price Forecast: ADA extends bearish reversal as sell-side pressure intensifies

Cardano faces intense selling pressure, with over 4% losses so far on Thursday, pushing the price below $0.2000. The sell-off aligns with the broader cryptocurrency market pullback after the US Federal Reserve decided to pause the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday.

Cardano Price Forecast: ADA extends bearish reversal as sell-side pressure intensifies
Cardano (ADA) faces intense selling pressure, with over 4% losses so far on Thursday, pushing the price below $0.2000. The sell-off aligns with the broader cryptocurrency market pullback after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to pause the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday.
Bitcoin extends pullback as ETF inflows clash with risk-off sentiment

Bitcoin remains under pressure, trading around $81,800 on Friday, recording modest losses so far this week. Despite a mild pullback, institutional demand showed signs of a comeback with spot Exchange Traded Funds recording $442.67 million in net inflows through Thursday.