Ripple Price Analysis: XRP sits at a critical point to determine its future

The month of September hasn't been the greatest for the cross-border currency. XRP lost roughly $3 billion in market capitalization over the past month. The digital asset currently stands at a crucial point that will determine its short-term future.

The bearish outlook for XRP

Several indicators and patterns are suggesting that XRP's price could be looking at further downside action in the short-term. 

XRP/USD daily chart

On the daily chart, XRP formed a descending parallel channel and seemed to have been rejected from the channel's upper boundary. On September 2, the last rejection made the digital asset drop by more than 20% within two days. 

XRP Holders Distribution Chart

The confirmation of the newest rejection is further confirmed by the holders distribution chart provided by Santiment. Looking at this chart, we can observe a notable drop in the number of whales with at least 10,000,000 XRP coins from 313 on September 26 to 309 now. A decrease in the number of whales suggests weakness and potentially selling pressure if exchange inflow is high.

XRP Exchange Inflow

Unfortunately, looking at the exchange inflow metric, we can see a significant spike in the last 24 hours. Both metrics together seem to suggest that perhaps some whales are getting ready to sell their holdings, increasing the selling pressure. 

A rejection from the upper boundary of the descending parallel channel on the daily chart would most likely take XRP down to the 200-SMA at $0.216. 

The bullish outlook for XRP

Using the same daily chart, although it seems XRP price is getting rejected from the upper trendline, it has also climbed above the 50-SMA. In fact, this SMA is now acting as a support level. 

XRP/USD daily chart

If XRP bulls can push the price above the upper trendline with a clear breakout, the digital asset can easily reach the 100-SMA at $0.26 but could have a maximum target price of up to $0.30. 

XRP/USD 4-hour chart

Furthermore, on the 4-hour chart, the MACD seems to be ready for a bullish cross within the next few hours. The last bull cross on September 24 preceded a notable 10% price surge. XRP has defended the 100-SMA support level, and it's trying to stay above the 50-MA and also convert it into support. 

If XRP can clearly turn the 50-MA into support, the odds of a breakout above the daily descending parallel channel will be greater.