Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH erases Trump's tariff pause gains following rising distribution from whales

Ethereum price today: $1,540

• Ethereum erased some of its post-tariff pause gains as bearish signs returned to the market.
• The decline partly resulted from whales' selling activity in the past 24 hours, which sent their holdings to a five-month low.
• ETH technical indicators show signs of weakness as bulls and bears resume battle at the $1,500 support.

Ethereum (ETH) traded near $1,540 in the early hours of Friday after rising selling activity from whales saw the top altcoin erasing 4% of Trump's post-tariff pause gains.

Ethereum whales succumb to macro uncertainty

Following Trump's recent tariff pause announcement, ETH rallied, gaining more than 11% on Wednesday as short-term bullish sentiment skyrocketed. However, similar to the market reaction to earlier rumors of a tariff pause on Monday, ETH is beginning to decline again, indicating the short-term rally could be a bull trap.

The price action aligns with recent experts' predictions that risk-off sentiment still lingers in the market — especially after the Trump administration clarified that a 10% across-the-board tariff still applies to all imports.

On-chain data shows whales leveraged the short-term rally in the past 24 hours to sell at a slightly higher price.

A key Ethereum whale who bought ETH at a price of $8 sold 10,702 ETH at $1,576 after two years of inactivity, according to data from Lookonchain's alert. Another ETH OG sold 7,974 ETH after three years of dormancy, followed by a DeFi participant selling 28,999 ETH to repay a debt.

The recent selling pressure has sent the balance of whales holding between 10K and 100K ETH to a five-month low of 24.66 million ETH. These whales have depleted their balance by 1.18 million ETH in the past six weeks alone.

ETH supply distribution (10K-100K coins) vs price. Source: Santiment

During periods of risk-off sentiments like the current market environment, an asset's price decline accelerates when whales initiate intense selling activity, as visible in the chart above.

A similar selling activity occurred on Wednesday from investors who bought ETH between January and February following Trump's pause announcement. This is visible in the blue spike in the chart below.

ETH spent coins age bands. Source: Santiment

Ethereum Price Forecast: Bulls and bears resume battle for $1,500

Ethereum saw $88.75 million in futures liquidations in the past 24 hours, per Coinglass data. The total amount of long and short liquidations is $66.64 million and $24.11 million, respectively.

ETH is testing the support near $1,500 after declining 6% from Wednesday's high of $1,682 to $1,540 at press time.

If bulls fail to hold the $1,522 support, ETH could test the lower boundary of a descending channel extending from December. The top altcoin has traded inside this channel for nearly four months. A bounce at the channel’s support could send ETH to tackle the $1,800 key level.

ETH/USDT weekly chart

However, if the channel's support fails, ETH could plunge toward the $1,000 to $1,100 range — a critical support range during the UST/LUNA implosion and FTX crash of 2022, making it a key level to watch as macro uncertainty lingers.

Technical indicators on the weekly chart — the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) — show heightened bearish momentum and signs of oversold conditions.

A weekly candlestick close above the descending channel’s upper boundary will invalidate the thesis.