Ethereum ETFs launch next month ‘certainly possible' – Analyst

The newly-approved spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds could launch as early as mid-June — if the United States securities regulator follows a similar timeline to its spot Bitcoin ETF process.

Spot Ether ETFs got the green light for their 19b-4 filings today, allowing the funds to be listed on their respective exchanges. However, applicants will first need approved S-1 registration statements to begin trading.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has been saying S-1 approvals could come in a “couple of weeks,” but also noted that they “could take longer” as the process typically takes up to five months.

However, fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas responded that “mid June is certainly poss[ible].”

Balchunas expects there will only be one round of comments to the S-1 amendments, similar to how the SEC provided feedback for spot Bitcoin ETF applicants.

He noted that the process took around two weeks, which is how he arrived at his mid-June estimate.

“Just a guess tho. We will see,” Balchunas stressed.

Source: Eric Balchunas

VanEck filed its amended S-1 shortly after having its 19b-4 approved, while other applicants are expected to follow suit imminently.

However, Delphi Labs general counsel Gabriel Shapiro noted the SEC’s approval was made by its Division of Trading and Markets unit on a “delegated authority” — claiming that one of the five SEC Commissioners could challenge the decision within the next 10 days.

Digital asset lawyer Joe Carlasare told Cointelegraph that such a challenge could theoretically happen — “but it won’t.”

“They wouldn’t have passed it through trading and markets without knowing that no Commissioner opposed it.”

Seyffart appears to disagree with this view, noting that making decisions with delegated authority "is the norm” as requiring an official vote for every decision and every document "would be insane." He added that asking for a review likely "wouldn't change anything" about the approvals.  

Source: James Seyffart

Should the S-1s be signed off, Seyffart expects the spot Ether ETFs will see 20% of the flows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen, while Balchunas made a smaller estimate in the 10-15% range.

According to Farside Investors, spot Bitcoin ETFs have tallied $13.3 billion in net inflow since the products launched roughly four and a half months ago.

Capturing 20% of that would still see spot Ether ETFs tally a combined $2.66 billion over the same timeframe.

Some worry that the spot Ether ETF market could see considerable outflows from the converted Grayscale Ethereum Trust into spot ETF form, similar to outflows seen with the firm’s converted Bitcoin investment product.

There is more than $11.3 billion locked in the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, according to data from Arkham Intelligence.

VanEck, BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, ARK 21Shares, Bitwise and Invesco Galaxy were the eight applicants that received regulatory approval on May 23.

Hashdex was the only ETF issuer that didn’t receive regulatory approval on the day.