• Dogecoin price seems to be undoing its 30% upswing this week, but there is still hope.
  • Investors can expect a quick rally to $0.235 if DOGE flips the $0.159 hurdle.
  • A weekly candlestick close below $0.078 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

Dogecoin price seems to be having trouble breaking out of the popular bullish pattern on the weekly time frame despite the recent rally. Even after a successful move higher, DOGE needs to flip this immediate hurdle to reach its target.

Dogecoin price provides another opportunity

Dogecoin price has lost roughly 85% of its value as it dropped from its all-time high at $0.740 to $0.109 in roughly less than a year. This massive downswing was reflective of the crypto market but DOGE seems to have remained mum far longer than many altcoins. 

However, this correction has produced three distinctive lower highs and lower lows, which when connected using trend lines describe a falling wedge pattern.

The technical formation forecasts a 68% upswing to $0.235, determined by adding the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point.

Although DOGE sliced through the upper trend line at roughly $0.139 on April 26 from a daily time frame perspective, it needs to be validated on the weekly chart. Doing so will indicate that the uptrend has begun.

A secondary confirmation will arrive after DOGE flips the $0.159 hurdle into a support floor. In such a case, investors can accumulate DOGE and ride the wave that retests the forecasted target at $0.235.

DOGE/USDT 1-week chart

DOGE/USDT 1-week chart

Adding a tailwind to this bullish outlook for the dog-themed crypto is the 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model. This indicator is used to measure the average profit/loss of investors that purchased DOGE tokens over the past year.

A value between -10% to -15% indicates that short-term holders are at a loss. Interestingly, long-term holders tend to accumulate under these conditions and form local bottoms. Therefore, the said range is termed an “opportunity zone.”

For DOGE, the 365-day MVRV is hovering around -38%, which indicates that there is a chance for trend reversal and falls in line with the technical outlook.

DOGE 365-day MVRV 

DOGE 365-day MVRV 

Regardless of the bullishness around Dogecoin price, a quick crash in Bitcoin price could ruin the setups on most altcoins, including DOGE. Under these conditions, if Dogecoin price produces a weekly candlestick close below $0.078, it will invalidate the bullish thesis and potentially crash DOGE to $0.048.

 

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