Jonathan Morgan
Independent Analyst
- Dogecoin price has been in a downtrend for over a year.
- Critical breakout zone ahead could initiate an uptrend.
- Downside risks remain a concern but should be limited in scope.
Dogecoin price remains under significant pressure from sellers. DOGE is down more than 83% from its all-time high, and volume participation is near all-time lows. However, lower highs may be forming and could be a precursor no a new expansion move higher.
Dogecoin price is positioned for a push above $0.20
Dogecoin price action, from an Ichimoku perspective, is clearly bearish. All conditions necessary for an Ideal Bearish Ichimoku Breakout are present. However, bears have been unable or unwilling to capitalize on this bearish setup.
In many ways, Dogecoin price is showing some resilience. Compared to many other altcoins, DOGE is off its 2022 lows and is developing a strong area of support.
If bulls want to begin a new uptrend, several resistance levels must be broken first. There is a massive resistance cluster between $0.134 and $0.157. The technical levels contained in that range are:
- The Tenkan-Sen at $0.134
- The 2022 Volume Point of Control at $0.141
- The Kijun-Sen at $0.147
- The bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud (Senkou Span B) at $0.143
- The top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Senkou Span A) at $0.152
- The 50% Fibonacci expansion level at $0.157
Such a large collection of resistance levels in a tight range is rare, but it provides a clear picture of how big of an expansion move Dogecoin could make if it successfully breaks that cluster.
DOGE/USDT Daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart
The projected target range for Dogecoin price on a successful breakout would be the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion at $0.273. $0.0273 is just shy of the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace of the February 24, 2022 swing low to the top of the weekly strong bar on May 14, 2021.
Downside risks exist but are probably limited to the lower trendline of a prior descending wedge pattern at the critical and psychological price level of $0.10.
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