Coinbase revenues could hit nearly $50b by 2025, investment firm says

Hayden Capital writes that the crypto exchange giant is best-positioned to benefit from the industry’s strong growth.

Coinbase is the best-positioned cryptocurrency-related company to benefit from the industry’s soaring growth, Hayden Capital said on Monday in a memo on the crypto exchange.

• Coinbase could reach $49.2 billion in revenue exiting 2025 under a bullish outlook of mass crypto adoption, rising interest among institutional investors and the sector growing to $6.8 trillion in total size. Under a more conservative crypto market cap estimate of $3.4 trillion, the firm would more than double revenues to $21.3 billion by 2025.

• Hayden’s prediction for 2021 revenue of $8.8 billion is higher than other analysts’ estimates; Coinbase is projected to generate about $7 billion in revenue this year, according to FactSet estimates.

• Hayden Capital believes that Coinbase will hold its market share lead over other exchanges, while also fending off competition from other fintech firms, including Robinhood and PayPal.

• In addition, Coinbase also contains a “much larger share of the regulated spot markets in the U.S. than is widely understood, as opposed to looking at the usual trading volume leaderboards” on which most analysts are focused, the letter said.

• Founded by former New Street Research and J.P. Morgan small-cap equity fund research analyst Fred Liu, Hayden is a value-oriented investment firm, with holdings mostly concentrated in 6-15 core positions, according to its website.