• Dogecoin price is off to a good start this week as it moves above the falling wedge’s upper trendline.
  • A decisive move above $0.139 will confirm a breakout and propel DOGE by 68% to $0.234
  • A weekly candlestick close below $0.078 will invalidate the falling wedge and the bullish outlook.

Dogecoin price is traversing a popularly bullish pattern, a breakout from which, could result in explosive gains for early investors. After four weeks of trying and failing, DOGE is currently extremely close to breaking out and triggering the uptrend.

Dogecoin price ready for a breakout

Dogecoin price has been on a downtrend for roughly a year and has crashed nearly 85% from its all-time high of $0.740. This crash set a swing low at $0.109 in late February, indicating the end of sellers’ control.

During this move south, DOGE created three distinctive lower highs and lower lows, which when connected using trend lines describe a falling wedge pattern. This technical formation forecasts a 68% upswing to $0.235, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point.

So far, DOGE has only rallied 3% but is already hovering outside the falling wedge. Moreover, this move comes after Dogecoin price bounced off the $0.109 to $0.124 weekly demand zone. Therefore, the resulting upswing is backed by buyers. 

Furthermore, a continuation of this momentum is likely to propel DOGE towards its first hurdle at $0.159. Clearing this blockade will be the secondary confirmation of the uptrend and that the Dogecoin price is on track to revisit the target at $0.235.

In some cases, DOGE could extend the run-up to almost equal highs at $0.351, bringing the total gain to 160% from the current position at $0.136.

DOGE/USDT 1-week chart

DOGE/USDT 1-week chart

Perhaps the most important on-chain metric that aptly reveals the bullish outlook for Dogecoin price is the 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV). 

This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased DOGE over the past year. Based on Santiment’s research, a value below -10% to -15% indicates that short-term holders are at a loss and are less likely to sell. The long-term holders capitalize on this opportunity to accumulate, which is why this area is termed an “opportunity zone.” 

For DOGE, the 365-day MVRV hit a local bottom at -50% and is currently hovering around -39%, indicating the oversold nature of the meme coin and why an uptrend makes sense.

DOGE 365-day MVRV 

DOGE 365-day MVRV 

A weekly candlestick close above $0.159 will provide a confirmation of an uptrend and trigger a move to the forecasted target at $0.235. In total, this run-up would constitute an 80% ascent from the current position at $0.131.

 

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