BTC/USD: Bearish sequnce not finished, unless it breaks 100K

A lot of traders are wondering when Bitcoin will complete the pullback from the highs, but if we are really in a higher-degree retracement then keep in mind that the big pullbacks on Bitcoin usually lasted around 12 months, and right now we are only one and a half months away from the recent highs. That’s the first thing. The second thing, and the most important for me, is always the Elliott wave structure itself. I simply cannot ignore it, because it helps me identify the key levels that must be broken before we can confidently look for a turning point.

If you look closely at the price drop from the 116515 level, you can clearly see that this is a strong decline without a completed five-wave sequence yet. So even if we assume this is wave C rather than wave four, it still has to be structured by five waves. That means the current rebound from the 80k zone could easily be just a fourth wave, maybe stopping around 90k, which is an important swing level for this week.

Based on Elliott waves and price action, this weakness can still resume. The key level for a bullish turn is very clear: a push back above 99k, or better said 100k, which is a strong psychological pivot. Below it we stay in bearish mode with risk for one more drop.