• Bitcoin has had another negative week but managed to settle above $9,000.
  • Bitcoin's correlation with the global markets remains low, but the situation is about to change.
  • BTC/USD needs to regain $9,600 to extend the recovery.

Bitcoin attempted a recovery towards $10,000 but ended up at $9,100. The first digital asset printed the second red candle on a weekly chart. It is an alarming signal for the long-term bull as BTC may be vulnerable to deeper losses. At the time of writing, BTC/USD is changing hands at $9,150, down 4% on a week-on-week basis. Bitcoin's market value settled at $168,5 billion, which is 66.2% of the total capitalization of all digital assets in circulation.

Risk-on, Risk-off

Traditional financial markets a gripped with another panic attack as china and the US are ready to dig up the hatchet. The US President Donald Trump accuses Beijing of "mass worldwide killing", while the US senators try hard to devise a way to punish China for mishandling the coronavirus and not harm the US economy. The task is daunting as the economies of the tow superpowers depend on each other. The looming break up of the trade deal will eventually hit the economies of both countries and bring more strain to the world's financial system.

While Bitcoin is rather detached from the global themes now, any signs of economic or financial disruptions and escalation of geopolitical tensions may hit the cryptocurrency industry at the ricochet. Massive risk aversion may trigger more sell-offs as Bitcoin tend to fall in tandem with risk assets when the market is in panic.

However, the FED's intention to print is way out of the crisis may refocus the attention on inflationary concerns. In the recent interview on 60 Minutes the head of the US central bank Jerome Powell said that the bank flooded the economy with freshly printed money, which caused investors exodus from the debt markets. He also added that they can print U.S. dollars digitally to support the lending programs:

As a central bank, we have the ability to create money digitally. And we do that by buying Treasury Bills or bonds for other government guaranteed securities. And that actually increases the money supply. We also print actual currency and we distribute that through the Federal Reserve banks.

His words triggered a series of reactions within the cryptocurrency community. Investors and traders believe that such decisions may drive mass adoption as people are wary of irresponsible policies.

BTC/USD: Technical picture

Bitcoin broke a bullish pattern of eight successive green weekly candles. The first digital asset is ready to have its second negative week in a row, which still qualifies as a correction against the recovery from the mid-March lows. The local strong support is created by weekly SMA50 at $8,800. This barrier stopped the decline on Thursday and is likely to serve as a backstop for the short-term bears. 

If this area is cleared, the sell-off may be extended towards $8,450 (the neckline of the double top formation on the daily chart).  A sustainable move lower will open up the way to $8,100-$8,000. This area includes 61.8%  Fibo retracement for the downside move from February 2020 high, a confluence of daily SMAs and the lowest level of the previous week.
On the upside, once the price is above $9,300, the recovery may be extended towards $9,550-$9,600 with the congestion area reinforced by Thursday's high. Meanwhile, $10,000 remains the ultimate bullish goal. This barrier is reinforced by 38.2% Fibo retracement for the downside move from July 2019 high to December 2019 low. A sustainable move above this area will open up the way to $10,500, which is the highest level of 2020.

BTC/USD daily chart

The Forecast Poll showed a decrease of market expectations. While the forecast remains bullish both on the long-term and short-term timeframes, the experts do not expect the price to surpass $10,000 in the nearest three months.  It means that the market participants take a wait-and-see approach as the global situation and its outcomes for the cryptocurrency market are full of uncertainty.


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