Bitcoin vs Ethereum price prediction: Leadership change at a critical moment for the Crypto market

  • Ethereum has lost its edge against Bitcoin, which has the chance now to lead the Crypto market
  • Important levels being lost for the main Cryptocurrencies, pessimism looms and institutional investores await to get into the market: new markets, old stories

BTC/USD 4H chart


Bitcoin has drilled the Diamond formation base during the early European trading, which has severely damaged its short-term outlook. Actually, BTC/USD seems to be looking only the $7870 support, with the current falls actually limited, taking into account the big ranges Bitcoin usually involves. But the current technical breakdown is demolishing and might bring, if not a big technical swing in favor of bears, at least some difficult weeks for the bulls.

Below the current price, Bitcoin has some freedom to fall and we need to dip towards $7400 to find the first meaningful support. Next targets would be at $7100 and $6850. If any of these supports are reached, we should re-think the current scenario, draw the chart again and prepare for some strong bearish weeks.

On the upside, right now the only meaningful level is at $8050, which would take the BTC/USD to the bullish side. It's not the most likely scenario now, given how damaged is the technical outlook, but the change of leadership that we've seen between Ethereum and Bitcoin, with BTC taking back the edge, might be helpful for the bulls.

MACD in the 4-hour chart is crossed to the downside and now at the bearish territory of the indicator. In this timeframe, we see now two MACD divergences and a probable third on the way. As we know, a divergence doesn't mean an upcoming swing, but it expresses an usual behaviour in price.

Directional Movement Index in the same chart is showing sellers in a very strong position, with buyers in clear retreat but still in superior levels to those seen last May 12th. It's important to mention the retreat of the sellers in this last bearish leg.

ETH/BTC 4H chart


This is the chart of the day. Ethereum is losing strength in its cross with Bitcoin, with BTC regaining the leading position in the Crypto market, which in the past meant bull-market for Cryptos. A rotation of accounts back to Bitcoin crosses looks likely, at least until the current cross reaches the base of the triangle formation that currently contains the price. This key level is at 0.07BTC. At such level, we might be able to re-analyze the cross and re-evaluate if the mentioned rotation might continue.

Below the current level, supports for ETH/BTC are at 0.0765BTC, 0.0737BTC and 0.0685BTC, if the fall gets really vertical.

Above there, and as a necessary level to recover control of the cross, Ethereum needs to take its Bitcoin-measured value to 0.0836BTC first, followed by 0.09BTC and 0.1BTC as the ideal target. As we can see, this is a difficult scenario.

MACD in the 4-hour chart is now crossed to the downside, but still at the superior area of the indicator. There is still room before getting into negative territory, but the bullish steam that allowed Ethereum to lead has been lost.

Directional Movement Index in the same chart is showing sellers outweighing buyers by a small margin, something we haven't seen since mid-April. ADX is still setting the trend, but very close the level that indicates that trend strength has been lost.


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