Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC crucial liftoff to $12,200 – discovering on-chain metrics

  • Bitcoin hashrate is on the rise, mainly supported by increased rainfall in China.
  • A potential breakout from the symmetrical triangle in the 4-hour range targets highs above $11,000.
  • On-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin is on the verge of an upswing, eyeing highs above $12,000.

The flagship cryptocurrency is currently stuck in consolidation. The sluggish price movement comes after recovery from the recent dips under $10,000. On the upside, BTC is limited under $10,400. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Band highlights that ongoing consolidation is nearing an end. As the Bollinger Bands squeeze, volatility continues to build. Therefore, BTC could be heading into a period of high volatility and drastic price movement, but in which direction would be the breakout?

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

BTC/USD price chart

Bitcoin hashrate mounts despite the drop in price

Bitcoin network hashrate has continued to rise in September despite the drop in price from levels above $12,000 to the prevailing market value of $10,225. In August, the hash rate fell to 119.39 120 Terahashes (TH/s) before recovering to the current 128 TH/s.

The hash rate is a metric that measures the amount of hashpower (computational power) dedicated to the network by miners. It is used to ascertain the network's health, and sometimes it can show how well Bitcoin network is shielded from a 51% attack. An increase in hash rate is said to have been impacted by rainfall in China, leading to affordable electricity. As prices stabilize, there is a likelihood of Bitcoin resuming the uptrend.

Bitcoin hashrate chart

BTC hashrate chart

Bitcoin building the technical picture to $12,200

Bitcoin price is nurturing an uptrend despite the consolidation as described. The 4-hour chart shows the price moving upwards within the apex of a symmetrical triangle. If the momentum is sustained above the 50 SMA, Bitcoin could get a boost upwards. With the 50 SMA functioning as support, the chances of the price breaking above the symmetrical triangle would be extremely high. Such a breakout could have the potential to propel BTC above $11,000.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

BTC/USD price chart

The upward momentum is validated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) as the indicator moves closer to the midline. If the MACD completes the cross into the positive region, the optimistic uptrend will become more apparent.

It is essential to realize that $10,000 was resistance in February; therefore, at the moment, it can continue to work as a formidable support area. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms the consolidation, as seen with the Bollinger Bands. A breakout is expected in the near term as the Bollinger Bands squeeze.

BTC/USD weekly chart

BTC/USD price chart

Bitcoin fundamental analysis

According to Timothy Peterson, CAIA manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, every time Bitcoin’s “30-day return hits this lower threshold (we are very close now), it is usually followed by 30-day gains of 20 – 40%.”

According to data provided by IntoTheBlock, if Bitcoin moves past the resistance zone between $10,273 and $10,582, a region that attracted 607,080 BTC (volume purchased), the next significant hurdle is the zone from $11,509 and $11,818. On the downside, $9,945 and $10,254 is the support, as highlighted by the 550,240 BTC acquired in the range. Buyers must hold the price within this range. Otherwise, losses could extend to $9,018 observed from the chart below.

Bitcoin In/Out of the Money

BTC In/Out of the Money

As seen in the technical analysis and the on-chain analysis, the bellwether cryptocurrency is inclined to move to higher levels following the consolidation. The first target is to clear the resistance between $10,273 and $10,582. A breakout is expected, which would boost Bitcoin into the next hurdle highlighted in the range between $11,509 and $11,818. In the event the $12,000 critical level is turned into support, Bitcoin could drastically rise to highs above $13,000 and the 2019 high at $13,800.

Despite the generally bullish outlook, it is worth mentioning that a spike in selling pressure may compromise the positive picture. Note that the symmetrical triangle may very well develop into a bearish flag pattern, putting more pressure on the support between $9,945 and $10,254. In the end, a sharp fall to the next signficant support at $9,018 may follow.

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