Bitcoin price forecast: Is BTC gears up towards 112k? Key scenarios to watch
- Bitcoin rebounds off $98K weekly FVG as institutional inflows, political clarity, and Fed rate cut bets drive bullish sentiment.
- Technically, BTC trades above equilibrium near $109K with key support at $106K–$108K and resistance at $112k.
- A bullish breakout eyes new highs, while failure to hold FVGs risks downside to $103K–$104K.
Fundamental narratives driving Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin has once again ignited market hype, recovering sharply after bouncing off from $98,000 level taking out June 5 low and revisiting the volume imbalance, weekly Fair Value Gap resting between $97,900-$100,700 BTC is now trading near the $109,000 level, on above equilibrium as bullish tailwinds gather momentum from multiple directions:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows: Over $45 billion in inflows this month alone are fueling confidence, led by U.S.-based institutional investors seeking exposure via regulated vehicles.
- Corporate Accumulation: “Strategy” (formerly MicroStrategy) added another $530 million in BTC, boosting their holdings to over 597,000 BTC—a sign of long-term conviction.
- Political & Regulatory Clarity: U.S. regulatory clarity with bipartisan bills (like the GENIUS Act) and pro-crypto positioning from political figures (e.g., Trump) are helping reduce uncertainty.
- Interest Rate Bets: Markets are pricing in a 72.6% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, creating a more risk-on environment that supports crypto inflows.
- Weaker USD & Safe-Haven Demand: As the dollar consolidates and geopolitical risks ease (e.g., temporary ceasefires in the Middle East), Bitcoin’s role as a decentralized hedge continues to shine.
Technical outlook – BTC/USDT daily and four-hour structure
BTC is now trading on a premium level above equilibrium (Above the 50% of the Previous Range) near $109,000 with no signs of reversal or weakness as bullish macros mention support a bullish Bitcoin.
On the 4-Hour, after dropping at $105,000 level, there’s no follow-through for downside continuation, indicating strength on Bitcoin as risk-on sentiment continue to push price for new highs.
Bullish scenario: Rally toward new highs
Bitcoin remains poised to continue its bullish momentum if price holds above key support (Fair Value Gap + Premium Fibonacci Levels) and invalidates near-term resistance. Bullish traction will still be intact if:
- 1st Layer Fair Value Gap between $107,860.23 - $108,650.97 gets respected with 0.23+0.38 Fibonacci Levels acts as supports.
- 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap between $106,216.08 - $107,080.00 (Last Line of Defense) remains intact.
A caution on 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap - We would like price to just bounce off at that level and not consolidate for renewed strength.
Targets:
- $111,980 – Immediate resistance.
- $112,000 – All-Time High Level.
Bearish scenario: Another rejection from resistance
Should Bitcoin fail to sustain above key levels or if macro risk sentiment turns, a downside retracement could unfold.
Another layer of invalidation and could pose downside risk is if:
- The Fair Value Gap Levels fail to hold:
- 1st Layer - $107,860.23 - $108,650.97.
- 2nd Layer - $106,216.08 - $107,080.00.
- Ultimately, a breakdown below $105,000 level could pull the coin for a deeper pullback.
Targets:
- Daily Fair Value Gap - $103,400 - $104,600.
Author
Jasper Osita
Independent Analyst
Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis, trading Smart Money Concepts (SMC) with fundamentals in mind.
