Bitcoin price forecast: Is BTC gears up towards 112k? Key scenarios to watch

Fundamental narratives driving Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin has once again ignited market hype, recovering sharply after bouncing off from $98,000 level taking out June 5 low and revisiting the volume imbalance, weekly Fair Value Gap resting between $97,900-$100,700 BTC is now trading near the $109,000 level, on above equilibrium as bullish tailwinds gather momentum from multiple directions:

• Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows: Over $45 billion in inflows this month alone are fueling confidence, led by U.S.-based institutional investors seeking exposure via regulated vehicles.
• Corporate Accumulation: “Strategy” (formerly MicroStrategy) added another $530 million in BTC, boosting their holdings to over 597,000 BTC—a sign of long-term conviction.
• Political & Regulatory Clarity: U.S. regulatory clarity with bipartisan bills (like the GENIUS Act) and pro-crypto positioning from political figures (e.g., Trump) are helping reduce uncertainty.
• Interest Rate Bets: Markets are pricing in a 72.6% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, creating a more risk-on environment that supports crypto inflows.

• Weaker USD & Safe-Haven Demand: As the dollar consolidates and geopolitical risks ease (e.g., temporary ceasefires in the Middle East), Bitcoin’s role as a decentralized hedge continues to shine.

Technical outlook – BTC/USDT daily and four-hour structure

BTC is now trading on a premium level above equilibrium (Above the 50% of the Previous Range) near $109,000 with no signs of reversal or weakness as bullish macros mention support a bullish Bitcoin.

On the 4-Hour, after dropping at $105,000 level, there’s no follow-through for downside continuation, indicating strength on Bitcoin as risk-on sentiment continue to push price for new highs.

Bullish scenario: Rally toward new highs

Bitcoin remains poised to continue its bullish momentum if price holds above key support (Fair Value Gap + Premium Fibonacci Levels) and invalidates near-term resistance. Bullish traction will still be intact if:

• 1st Layer Fair Value Gap between $107,860.23 - $108,650.97 gets respected with 0.23+0.38 Fibonacci Levels acts as supports.
• 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap between $106,216.08 - $107,080.00 (Last Line of Defense) remains intact.

A caution on 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap - We would like price to just bounce off at that level and not consolidate for renewed strength.

Targets:

• $111,980 – Immediate resistance.
• $112,000 – All-Time High Level.

Bearish scenario: Another rejection from resistance

Should Bitcoin fail to sustain above key levels or if macro risk sentiment turns, a downside retracement could unfold.

Another layer of invalidation and could pose downside risk is if:

• The Fair Value Gap Levels fail to hold:
• • 1st Layer - $107,860.23 - $108,650.97.
  • 2nd Layer - $106,216.08 - $107,080.00.
• Ultimately, a breakdown below $105,000 level could pull the coin for a deeper pullback.

Targets:

• Daily Fair Value Gap - $103,400 - $104,600.