- BTC/USD hit a new cycle low, closer to $3,000.
- The SEC delay was the trigger, and whales could be on the move.
- Bitcoin is in oversold territory, but not deeply so. The experts see further falls for BTC/USD.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies made some attempts to recover early in the week but these moves now look like just another "dead cat bounce." Even a dead cat bounces when it falls to the floor.
As time passed by, digital coins were leaning lower, and then came the Securities and Exchange Commission. The US regulator decided to postpone its decision on a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) from late December to late February. The high-profile application by SolidX and Van Eck provided a lot of hopes for crypto traders.
A Bitcoin ETF is essential for bringing mainstream investors into the world of cryptocurrencies. While the previous week saw moves towards institutional participation (NASDAQ, Coinbase OTC, etc.), the retail world is no less important.
In addition, there have been reports about massive movements of capital between various crypto wallets. These have raised the speculation that large players have been dumping cryptos in order to push prices lower, only in order to accumulate them later on.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 30 on the daily chart, indicating oversold conditions. However, these conditions are milder than they were in mid-November. The relative stability seen before the recent crash cleaned some of these conditions. Momentum remains to the downside and the price is well below the Simple Moving Averages on the daily chart, and this does not bode well for the granddaddy of cryptocurrencies.
The previous low of $3,466 now switches to resistance. A further cap awaits at $3,660 which was a support level before the crash and also a stepping stone on the way down. The next level to watch is $3,825 which was a temporary support line. The sub-$5,000 low of $4,051 is next and it is followed by $4,400 and $4,600.
Looking down, the fresh low of $3,299 is the obvious support line.
What are the next levels to watch out for below the fresh lows? Here is what FXStreet crypto expert Tomas Salles says:
Under this support level, the BTC/USD would already be in a position to strike the psychological level of $3,000 and then head to the second support level at $2,880 (price congestion support). The third level of support is at $2,500 (price congestion support).
The Forecast Poll of experts is dominated by the bears with a target below $3,000 in the long-term. The projections have been revised lower on all timeframes.
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