Bitcoin metric breakout teases 'inevitable' 90% BTC price rally next

Bitcoin may see a “strong bull rally” if one classic BTC price metric repeats a historical breakout.

In one of its Quicktake blog posts on Nov. 18, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged a rare golden cross for Bitcoin’s BTC $91,378 Puell Multiple.

Puell Multiple nears BTC price breakout line

Bitcoin bulls will benefit from an average BTC price surge of 90% if the Puell Multiple stages a rare breakout.

Analyzing behavior over the past five years, CryptoQuant shows that the metric has crossed its 365-day moving average just three times. On each occasion, BTC/USD “experienced significant price surges.”

“Puell Multiple helps us understand market cycles from a mining perspective,” CryptoQuant contributor Burakkesmeci said. 

It is a crucial indicator for evaluating mining profitability.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Puell measures the daily value of mined Bitcoin to their 365-day moving average to provide an insight into miner stability. When the value crosses the moving average trend line, it tends to coincide with rapid BTC price gains.

In March 2019, a Puell golden cross was followed by an 83% rally. January 2020 sparked 113% upside, while the most recent cross in January 2024 offered 76% returns.

“This data shows that after Puell Multiple settles above its SMA365, an average increase of around 90% in Bitcoin’s price has historically followed,” the post said.

CryptoQuant said favorable macroeconomic conditions help boost the odds of an “inevitable” rally.

“All these data points and the macroeconomic framework suggest that a strong bull rally might be on the horizon,” it said.

RSI signals Bitcoin bull market just beginning

As Cointelegraph reported, various analysts now see Bitcoin’s most intense upside still lying ahead, despite BTC/USD gaining over 40% in Q4 so far.

The market’s “parabolic phase” has notionally begun, lasting for around 300 days before a new macro top sets in. 

Locally, expectations of Bitcoin reaching six figures for the first time in history are increasing, tempered by concerns that retail “FOMO” may force a significant correction.

“Lots of people about to become intimately familiar with the phrase, Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), on this Bitcoin cycle,” commentator Preston Pysh, co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast, predicted on X this week.

Earlier this month, pseudonymous analyst PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow family of BTC price models, foresaw the main FOMO wave hitting in early 2025.

PlanB referenced the relative strength index (RSI), which tends to stay above its “overbought” 70 level throughout Bitcoin bull runs. Monthly RSI measured 74.4 on Nov. 18, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1-month chart with RSI data. Source: TradingView