Bitcoin may see relief rally to $11K after Dollar Strength Index soars

Bitcoin price still has a CME futures gap unfilled at $9,600 but that doesn’t mean $11K won’t be reclaimed soon.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been stagnating in recent weeks, as it couldn’t break above $11,000 and couldn’t drop below $10,000, the ultimate sign of a continued range-bound structure. 

Such a range-bound and sideways structure could strengthen some relief on the markets, as the altcoins — especially the DeFi sector — have seen massive selloffs in recent weeks.

However, what’s next for Bitcoin as the futures expiration day is tomorrow, which most likely will cause short-term volatility? 

Bitcoin is still waiting to fill the CME gap as the downtrend continues 

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The daily chart is showing a clear downtrend since $12,400. The fakeout above $12,000 marked the end of an uptrend with a clear rejection of the $12,000 level as confirmation.

As the chart shows, constant lower highs are fabricated, initiating that the price is in bearish modus since this peak high. First of all, the $12,000 level was confirmed for resistance, and after that, the $11,100 area flipped from support to resistance. 

Given that the current trend is down, a further downward drop is looking more likely after $10,000 to make another lower low. The next support level can then be the CME gap at $9,600, which is still unfilled.

BTC/USD CME 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The CME chart shows the gap that’s still unfilled. As the majority of the CME gaps get filled, it’s also likely to expect a close of this CME gap in the future. 

Will the U.S. Dollar Currency Index now consolidate?

DXY Index 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The primary scenario for the weakness across assets is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Globally, concerns and fear for another round of lockdowns due to the coronavirus caused the markets to pull back. 

Commodity, crypto, and equity markets have been showing weakness in recent weeks, with investors flowing into “safe havens,” namely the U.S. dollar.

However, as the USD is fighting a potential resistance level, a correction is now likely. Bitcoin and other assets might see a relief rally if the USD corrects.

Possible scenario for Bitcoin 

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Since the price of Bitcoin is now resting on a support level and the U.S. Dollar might be topping out, a relief rally may be expected. However, one bearish factor is the recent negative market sentiment, which is a heavy argument against a short-term relief rally.

Nevertheless, the crucial level to break to the upside is the resistance zone around $11,000, which is most likely not going to break in one go. Bitcoin’s price has shifted to a downtrend since $12,400, where a clear bottoming structure should be defined before any further upward momentum can be expected. 

In any case, a rally towards $10,700-11,000 is on the tables, as the 2-hour chart shows. 

BTC/USD 2-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Additionally, the chart is showing a possible bullish divergence. This bullish divergence is confirmed once the price of Bitcoin makes a higher low at $10,350-10,400. If that occurs, a potential relief rally towards the upper resistance zones is likely.

However, this relief rally can’t be stated as a potential bottoming structure on the markets in general. After a big impulse move, consolidation and accumulation take a long time before a new impulse move can start. 

As the recent one occurred in August (from $10,000 to $12,400), it’s likely to expect several months of sideways consolidation before new fireworks may occur.