Bitcoin holds firm despite Middle East tensions, eyes recovery - K33

Bitcoin (BTC) held steady near $68,000 despite Middle East tensions, as K33 cited easing long-term selling pressure, rare derivatives signals, and improving inflows as indicators of a rebound.

Bitcoin holds $68K amid geopolitical tensions

In a report on Tuesday, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde noted that the recent correction may be nearing exhaustion, with improving technical and structural signals supporting a constructive outlook.

He described Bitcoin as "heavily oversold" after six consecutive weeks of declines, which marked its second-longest losing streak on record. The top crypto's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to one of its lowest levels historically, a condition that has often preceded rebounds.

Signs of easing institutional selling pressure are emerging. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered net inflows of more than 20,000 BTC last week, marking the strongest weekly notional inflow in five months. The reversal occurred even as markets absorbed geopolitical shocks over the weekend.

"Risk-reward appears asymmetrically skewed to the upside at current levels [...] we see no compelling reason to sell BTC at current levels," Lunde wrote.

He further highlighted that the 30-day average of Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates turned negative on February 28, only the tenth time since 2018. Historically, sustained periods of negative funding have suggested lower downside ahead.

Additional data suggests that large Bitcoin holders have lowered selling pressure. Over the past month, the supply of BTC aged six months or more has increased, reversing the steep contraction recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The moderation in seasoned holder selling has coincided with Bitcoin trading near its 200-week moving average, a level historically associated with cyclical bottoms. With fewer large holders distributing, prices have stabilized between $60,000 and $70,000 over the past four weeks, rather than extending the earlier downward trajectory.

K33 also noted that reduced institutional ownership has lowered Bitcoin's sensitivity to global macro shocks, thereby dampening its volatility. Such conditions have historically aligned with prolonged market bottoms, which require patience as new narratives emerge. This often presents favorable opportunities for long-term accumulation.

Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours as of writing.