Bitcoin has 100 days to go ‘parabolic’ or end its bull market

Key points

• Bitcoin is due for a breakout after record Bollinger Bands “tightness,” but the direction remains unknown.
• According to history, the scenario typically resolves within around three months.
• BTC price action is teasing the start of a new “price discovery uptrend.”

Bitcoin (BTC $122,754) may flip “parabolic” or end its bull market within the next 100 days, said a new BTC price volatility analysis.

In an X post on Wednesday, trader Tony “The Bull” Severino concluded that Bitcoin’s next move hinges on the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator.

BTC price faces a new breakout dilemma

Bollinger Bands, a classic volatility gauge that functions as a leading indicator for price, recently hit record “tightness” on weekly timeframes.

Analysts have been watching for a follow-through price breakout, either through the upper or lower outer band.

Severino warned that such a move may not come immediately, but could take more than three months.

“For now, BTCUSD has failed to break out above the upper band with strength,” he said.

According to past local consolidation ranges, it could take as long as 100+ days to get a valid breakout (or breakdown, if BTC dumps instead).

BTC/USD one-week chart with Bollinger Bands data. Source: Tony “The Bull” Severino/X

The time frame is based on previous Bollinger Band breakouts over the course of the bull market, which began in early 2023.

Severino said that a clean break through either of the bands with a single daily candle would be the key signal, but added that fake breakout moves could also occur.

“Beware: expanding from a Squeeze setup like this can lead to head fakes. We might have seen one with this latest move,” he continued, referring to Bitcoin’s latest all-time high above $126,000.

We also might see another head fake down from here before eventually taking off higher.

Bitcoin ”price discovery uptrend” next?

As Cointelegraph reported, previous bull markets have led market participants to expect a blow-off top for BTC/USD in October.

Price action, however, has yet to display the rapid upside characteristic of the final stage of bull runs. 

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who reported the deadline for the top, last month observed that BTC price cycles are getting longer, not shorter.

“It’s unlikely Bitcoin has already peaked in its Bull Market because that would effectively mean that this cycle was one of the shortest of all time,” he correctly argued at the time, while $124,500 was still the all-time high.

This week, Rekt Capital announced the potential start of a new “price discovery uptrend.”

Severino said that the Bollinger Bands breakout will have a profound impact on the bull market. He wrote:

This has the potential to send Bitcoin parabolic, or put an end to the three year’s mature bull rally.